Industrial output down, but camouflages real business climate indicators

Industrial output fell 3.2% year-on-year in March, but analysts say in real terms it actually grew by 1.3% to 1.4% and the economy should experience a visible rebound in the coming months. The reason the 3.2% drop is misleading is that this year March had one fewer working days than in 2001. Analysts estimate GDP growth in the first quarter at 0.5%. The Central Statistical Office (GUS) also published its business climate indicator, which rose for the third month in a row in April, reaching its highest level in 12 months. "This is a sign that a turning point is imminent," said Michal Dybula, a BNP Paribas economist. (Gazeta Wyborcza, p. 21) T.J