Industrial output for September exceeds forecasts but analysts urge caution

The Central Statistical Office (GUS) has unexpectedly announced that industrial output grew by 6.7% in September on a year-to-year basis. Analysts predicted the growth to be at the level of around 4% and, in their view, this positive result proves that the situation in the economy is improving, but they have so far not corrected their forecasts for the whole third quarter of 2002. "Following the 1.1% drop in output in August, September's data seem very good. Particularly positive is the 8.4% increase in the processed industrial production sector," said general economist of CAIB Securities, Iwona Pugacewicz-Kowalska. The real increase in production output, after taking into account seasonal factors, amounted to 4.2% in September. "This is the effect of improved productivity of Polish companies and increased exports," said Jacek Wisniewski from Bank Pekao. However, economists warn that it is too early to forecast an economic revival, as in previous years strong monthly growth occurred many times, then stagnation continued. (Parkiet, p. 1) M.M.