Industrial output up 10.1% over last year, but overall outlook not very rosy

January industrial output was 10.1% higher than in the same month of 2000, reported the Central Statistical Office (GUS, surprising analysts who expected this figure to be below 10%, but other economic figures are less positive. Output in January was 8.9% lower than a month earlier, but this is a typical phenomenon, as industry slows down after a hectic pre-Christmas period. └It looks as though the opinions declaring a possible recession caused by high interest rates were exaggerated,■ said ING Barings economist Krzysztof Rybinski, commenting on the boost in output over 2000. Other analysts were more cautious, however, pointing out that this year the month of January had one more working day than a year ago, plus the fact that last year's data were particularly bad, so a rebound is only natural. Government Center for Strategic Studies (RCSS) analyst Tadeusz Chroscicki stressed that construction sector output was 59.3% lower than in December and 9.8% lower than in January 2000. He also noted a 0.2% drop in the production price index (PPI) with respect to December, a sign that producers are having difficulty selling their products, he said. └A strong drop in prices combined with a drop in inflation is a recession mix,■ said Citibank economist Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska. (Gazeta Wyborcza, p.18; Puls Biznesu, p.31; Reuters) T.J.