Inflation in late 2003 could begin to rise as recovery makes itself felt

Prior to the publication of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) inflation results, analysts surveyed by Puls Biznesu predict that y-o-y inflation for 2003 will remain stable and no rebound is expected. This, claim experts, is a result of the National Bank of Poland's effective policy of first reducing and then stabilizing the consumer price index (CPI). In the six months of 2003, the CPI will not surpass 1%, mainly due to falling food prices. The only threat comes from a possible fuel price shock, should there be a war in the Persian Gulf. These, however, probably would be temporary set backs and would be softened by the appreciation of zloty, claim analysts. The CPI could increase towards the end of 2003 as the first results of the economic recovery begin to appear. (Puls Biznesu, p. 24) J.K.