ING economists forecast how election results may affect markets
13:09
For the markets, the most desirable electoral scenario is that Poland's ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) rules without the majority, which would give it the opportunity to change the constitution or reject the president's veto, ING economists said. "Such an outcome of elections would result in a relatively stable economic policy and somewhat limited tensions with the European Union," they wrote in an analysis of election scenarios.
In a scenario where PiS gains more support, ING expects a less expansive fiscal policy, but more controversial political movements, e.g. re-entering conflict with the EU. "Such a change would cause further redevelopment of the judiciary, changes in press law, and other changes... Such a result would be slightly negative for bonds and negative for the zloty exchange rate," economists added.
