Kalinowski advances
Now that Adam Michnik has backed off by declaring that the prime minister had nothing to do with the Rywin affair, politics has shown that Leszek Miller has on this occasion proved too strong to be ousted. Agora, facing pointed questions over the sale of shares by its top management just a few days before the publication of the story, is being forced to recant. Miller's name will be cleared. Rywin will get a suspended sentence. Stories about the president and the singer will stop. Attacks on Agora will cease. Another scandal will pass unexplained. Par for the course.
The spectacle of the Parliamentary Investigative Commission being lectured by a junior public prosecutor on its rights to examine evidence has demonstrated the weakness of Polish representative democracy. Imagine that happening in the US Congress? The insolent prosecutor would be condemned to a lifetime of handling divorce proceedings. But Poland is different. Government officials have no respect for parliament. More worrying is the fact that the Sejm seems to have so little respect for itself when it allows the executive to behave in this way.
Turning to more mundane matters such as current tiffs inside the governing coalition, we can speculate a little on how developments will unfold ahead of the coming poll of Poles. The jockeying for position has begun early.
Both Jarosław Kalinowski and Marek Pol want to show they mean something in this coalition. Pol wants to demonstrate that his UP is more leftist than the left. By raising issues such as abortion and extra taxes on the rich, he is signalling that the SLD should not abandon left-wing policies. Since his party is so puny and dependent on the SLD, his whining will cut little ice with Miller.
Kalinowski is an altogether different kettle of fish. Buoyed up by his relative successes during the negotiations with the EU, Kalinowski aims to put pressure on Miller and make space for himself as a potential coalition partner for the centre and right after the next parliamentary elections.
This is why Kalinowski is more than willing to attack the SLD. He will point to its political vacillation over the biofuels bill. The SLD-dominated government signed off on biofuels, and its members of the Sejm voted the bill through. Now they are changing their minds under pressure from Aleksander Kwaniewski and the oil lobby. Kalinowski will use this to portray them as servile to powerful foreign business interests.
The PSL leader will be even harder on EU-related agricultural issues. Kalinowski must suspect that Brussels' move on direct payments during the writing of the accession treaty may have been instigated back in Warsaw. It is common knowledge that the SLD is reluctant to spend the cash it got from the EU during the Copenhagen Summit on topping up farm subsidies. The Brussels call for Poland to set up the standard system of subsidies for produce on a part of the direct payments would inevitably lead to these handouts not being made as the country has no chance of getting the full IACS ready in time. That's music to Grzegorz Kołodko's ears, though others might call it embezzlement.
Kalinowski rightly fears that Miller will try to renege on the promise to top up the direct payments from the already overstretched state budget. If Miller toughs it out on this one, it will probably mean that we are on course for early parliamentary elections or a change of coalition partners.
The PSL cannot support a budget for 2004 with no topping up of direct payments. If it backs down on this, it will lose the rural vote to Samoobrona. Unless the SLD backs down on this issue, the government is finished. We are almost certainly at the starting line for an election.
The SLD has two choices. It can either decide to go for an early general election to coincide with the euphoria over EU accession or it can set up shop with parts of the PO. The first option will be chosen if opinion surveys are good or a potential coalition-partner centre party can be established in time for the elections. The second option will be selected if killing off the PO becomes a necessity.
It is no secret that the only alternative coalition that could form after a general election would have to consist of the PSL, PiS, LPR and PO. A coalition of this kind is currently being rehearsed in Mazowsze as a result of the PSL ditching the SLD after the local government elections. The decision to form such a coalition was taken by Kalinowski in retaliation to the SLD forming several regional coalitions with Lepper's merry men. Drawing the PO away from the right would effectively scupper one side of that rectangle.
The intelligent money remains on Kalinowski being one of the few players to thrive. He remains an attractive coalition partner for everyone but Samoobrona. His party is more than likely to be holding the balance of power in the next Sejm.
The only thing he must avoid is the SLD screwing the farmers in the 2004 budget. That is why he is starting his long run for home right now.
The spectacle of the Parliamentary Investigative Commission being lectured by a junior public prosecutor on its rights to examine evidence has demonstrated the weakness of Polish representative democracy. Imagine that happening in the US Congress? The insolent prosecutor would be condemned to a lifetime of handling divorce proceedings. But Poland is different. Government officials have no respect for parliament. More worrying is the fact that the Sejm seems to have so little respect for itself when it allows the executive to behave in this way.
Turning to more mundane matters such as current tiffs inside the governing coalition, we can speculate a little on how developments will unfold ahead of the coming poll of Poles. The jockeying for position has begun early.
Both Jarosław Kalinowski and Marek Pol want to show they mean something in this coalition. Pol wants to demonstrate that his UP is more leftist than the left. By raising issues such as abortion and extra taxes on the rich, he is signalling that the SLD should not abandon left-wing policies. Since his party is so puny and dependent on the SLD, his whining will cut little ice with Miller.
Kalinowski is an altogether different kettle of fish. Buoyed up by his relative successes during the negotiations with the EU, Kalinowski aims to put pressure on Miller and make space for himself as a potential coalition partner for the centre and right after the next parliamentary elections.
This is why Kalinowski is more than willing to attack the SLD. He will point to its political vacillation over the biofuels bill. The SLD-dominated government signed off on biofuels, and its members of the Sejm voted the bill through. Now they are changing their minds under pressure from Aleksander Kwaniewski and the oil lobby. Kalinowski will use this to portray them as servile to powerful foreign business interests.
The PSL leader will be even harder on EU-related agricultural issues. Kalinowski must suspect that Brussels' move on direct payments during the writing of the accession treaty may have been instigated back in Warsaw. It is common knowledge that the SLD is reluctant to spend the cash it got from the EU during the Copenhagen Summit on topping up farm subsidies. The Brussels call for Poland to set up the standard system of subsidies for produce on a part of the direct payments would inevitably lead to these handouts not being made as the country has no chance of getting the full IACS ready in time. That's music to Grzegorz Kołodko's ears, though others might call it embezzlement.
Kalinowski rightly fears that Miller will try to renege on the promise to top up the direct payments from the already overstretched state budget. If Miller toughs it out on this one, it will probably mean that we are on course for early parliamentary elections or a change of coalition partners.
The PSL cannot support a budget for 2004 with no topping up of direct payments. If it backs down on this, it will lose the rural vote to Samoobrona. Unless the SLD backs down on this issue, the government is finished. We are almost certainly at the starting line for an election.
The SLD has two choices. It can either decide to go for an early general election to coincide with the euphoria over EU accession or it can set up shop with parts of the PO. The first option will be chosen if opinion surveys are good or a potential coalition-partner centre party can be established in time for the elections. The second option will be selected if killing off the PO becomes a necessity.
It is no secret that the only alternative coalition that could form after a general election would have to consist of the PSL, PiS, LPR and PO. A coalition of this kind is currently being rehearsed in Mazowsze as a result of the PSL ditching the SLD after the local government elections. The decision to form such a coalition was taken by Kalinowski in retaliation to the SLD forming several regional coalitions with Lepper's merry men. Drawing the PO away from the right would effectively scupper one side of that rectangle.
The intelligent money remains on Kalinowski being one of the few players to thrive. He remains an attractive coalition partner for everyone but Samoobrona. His party is more than likely to be holding the balance of power in the next Sejm.
The only thing he must avoid is the SLD screwing the farmers in the 2004 budget. That is why he is starting his long run for home right now.
