Kolodko waves magic wand over budget deficit, but will it work?

The Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Grzegorz Kolodko, has no doubts as to the proper shape of next year's budget. The lost income originally penciled in from the aborted tax amnesty, together with the failure of restructuring plans - around zl.1.3 billion - is to be compensated for by the withdrawal of the corresponding sum from the profits of the National Bank, while an additional zl. 143 million is to come from excise taxes and customs duties. Within the last 48 hours the budget deficit - caused by the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling against the controversial tax amnesty - has been miraculously reduced, at least on paper. The Deputy Prime Minister announced that this step has been agreed upon by the National Bank and the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), thus no amendment to the budget draft need be made, and Saturday's vote will end in success. However, everything is only seemingly in order. On closer analysis, the problem of the hidden deficit (in the form of an agreement to take commercial loans by government agencies and funds) has not, in fact, been solved. Another pitfall might be the minister's risky hypothesis concerning economic growth. The budget deficit will be reduced only with growth of 3.5%. However, the OECD fears that this expectation is excessively optimistic and forecasts the rate to oscillate around the 2.5% mark. (Prawo i Gospodarka, p.1) A.C.