Let the battle start
As the dust settles from the presidential elections, won as expected by the incumbent President Aleksander Kwasniewski, a new battle is about to begin: not between Poland's political parties, but rather inside the ruling Solidarity Election Action (AWS) movement. The issue: the future of Marian Krzaklewski as leader of the movement, and together with that, the chances of AWS recovering its support prior to next year's parliamentary elections.
As soon as the exit polls revealed that the AWS leader had come in third with a little over 15% of the popular vote, the explanations came thick and fast from within AWS. On the side of Krzaklewski and his team there was a range of excuses. First was the standard one about the effects of the reforms that the government of Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek has introduced over the last couple of years. Secondly, it was argued, Krzaklewski was handicapped by having his campaign be boycotted by the senior leaders of the center-right parties within AWS, who in failing to campaign for their leader prevented him from extending his electoral base, unlike during the victorious 1997 parliamentary election. Thirdly, much play was made of the media's hostility to Krzaklewski and the pro-presidential propaganda that Polish state television engaged in during the contest. The conclusion? That Krzaklewski was blameless, and if only the other factors had not occurred, he would be challenging Kwasniewski in a second-round runoff. And because Krzaklewski was blameless, attempts to remove him from the AWS leadership were pointless and would only result in the collapse of the movement itself.
Krzaklewski's opponents within AWS were much more unforgiving on election night. While Krzaklewski and his supporters were celebrating their "victory" in central Warsaw, Jan Maria Rokita, leader of the small but influential Conservative People's Party (SKL) within AWS, was appearing on national television calling for Krzaklewski's resignation. Rokita argued that although it was true that Krzaklewski had been dealt a poor hand of cards in the campaign, at the end of the day he lost because people did not want to vote for him. That was unlikely to change in the few months remaining before parliamentary elections, and so the only solution was to look to a new leader. In the days that followed, Rokita was echoed in public by his party allies within AWS, and most loudly by the man who has now made an open play for the succession to Krzaklewski, namely Maciej Plazynski, the speaker of Parliament. The scene is set for what many foresee will be a titanic struggle for the leadership of AWS and with it the future shape of the Polish center-right.
It is interesting to note that support and opposition to Krzaklewski within AWS cuts clean across the existing party factions in the movement, with the leaderships of the parties tending to criticize Krzaklewski, and second-tier figures who in fact did support him in the campaign tending to back him. This cleavage relates not only to whether or not Krzaklewski should lead AWS, but also to the future shape of AWS itself: Krzaklewski and his supporters hope to turn AWS into a single political party, of course under Krzaklewski's leadership, while his opponents would prefer to see the movement become merely a formal coalition of its constituent parties. Krzaklewski's opponents are also pushing for a fundamental shift in the image and policies of AWS away from Krzaklewski's stress on historical issues and flirtations with the policies of Poland's far right, and toward a reorientation of policy to the center. The results of the independent Andrzej Olechowski, who ran on a moderate conservative platform and exceeded Krzaklewski's results, suggests to them that it is Krzaklewski's failure to appeal to the center that is responsible for his poor showing.
As this battle commences, its outcome is not without significance for the longevity of the Buzek government. At the moment, the survival of the government into next autumn hinges on whether AWS will be able to come to an agreement with the Freedom Union (UW) over next year's budget. Some UW politicians have clearly signaled that an AWS movement under the leadership of, say, Plazynski would be better able to strike a deal than an AWS still under Krzaklewski. By the same token, any struggle that leaves Krzaklewski standing will mean the weakening of the "liberal" wing under Rokita's SKL, and the removal from influence of the faction most keen to do a deal with the UW. On the other hand, Olechowski's excellent results will strengthen the hand of UW leader Leszek Balcerowicz against internal party opponents, since it was Balcerowicz who tried unsuccessfully to encourage his party to back Olechowski. Yet Balcerowicz remains implacably opposed to a deal with AWS over the budget.
In other words, if by December Krzaklewski and Balcerowicz are still the leaders of AWS and UW respectively, start counting the days to the government's collapse. No wonder Kwasniewski and his allies are delighted with the way things have turned out.
