Local elections promise change and disorder
Recent elections signal not only changes in political leadership, but also a shift in power to local authorities under broad sweeping administrative reforms set to take effect beginning next year. So, the forecast on the local front will likely remain unsettled for some time to come.
As of Jan. 1, 1999, Poland's administrative map will be three tiered with the gmina as the smallest local district, followed by the powiat (essentially city level for large cities) and the voivod council. In addition, there is a voivod governor. Although the governor will be appointed by the prime minister, the other three government bodies are comprised of councils elected by local residents.
Besides the shift in the electoral base, the local councils will have expanded competencies in taxation, investment and property development. Cities, for example, will inherit properties from the State Treasury, formerly under voivod control. Voivod councils, essentially powerless until now, will be responsible for shaping regional development including infrastructure projects and will have the ability to sign international agreements.
Although most details have been worked out on paper, much remains to be defined in the reform law approved in late August, less than two months before the elections, said Andrew Young, country director for the National Democratic Institute, a U.S.-backed, non-profit political advisory group in Warsaw.
For example, funding sources remain unclear and the state will likely hand over property on a case-by-case basis, Young said.
So, although the long-term shift of control to the local level is laudable, business development will likely suffer in the short term during the paper shuffle and power plays, pundits and business leaders said.
"The first year will be difficult," said Andrzej Rybarczyk, president of general contractor POZ-Building Holding in Poznan. "There will have to be an evolutionary process to enter into this new situation … We will have to learn a lot."
Rybarczyk will take a seat in Poznan's city council for the first time in January. His party, Freedom Union (UW), however, will likely play a lesser role there than it has in the past.
That's a similar scenario in several major cities, where Solidarity Election Action (AWS) has consolidated its political base mirroring results in parliamentary elections two years ago. In those national elections, AWS united various Solidarity factions to emerge victorious and form a coalition government with UW.
Although in terms of overall results at the local level this year AWS came second behind the opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), AWS was playing significant roles last week in talks to form governments in major cities such as Poznan, Krakow, Katowice, Wroclaw, Gdansk and Gdynia.
In the Baltic cities of Gdynia and Gdansk, AWS scored strong victories, taking the majority of city council seats. But that does not necessarily mean a smooth road to transition and development of cohesive policies.
In Gdansk, for example, where AWS holds more than 50% of the new council seats, the coalition's conservative wing is a major player. The conservatives were part of the present government and headed city development and foreign investment programs and could provide continuity. But an unknown quantity is the coalition's other major player, the Solidarity trade union, which traditionally has taken a stand against large capital, foreign investment. Moreover, they have yet to have input on the city's zoning plan.
Although the plan is scheduled for city approval by year's end, Solidarity will probably want to review those blueprints resulting in delays of up to six months, said a local official, who requested anonymity.
Similar delays could play out as AWS seeks coalitions with UW in cities such as Katowice and Krakow, where there's a history of bad blood.
Last spring in Krakow, for example, Solidarity city council members teamed up with the SLD to oust the Krakow mayor, a member of UW. That move could haunt AWS if it wants to form a strong government in Krakow.
The Solidarity coalition, a strong leader in the recent elections, is forming a coalition with a small nationalist party, to gain a clear 51% majority. But with AWS itself a coalition of several factions, a stable government with clear policy direction may need UW as a partner.
The best solution is for AWS and UW to work together, said Kazimierz Karasinski, managing director for Sunley Polska.
Perhaps Wroclaw has the cleanest political scorecard. There, leaders of Wroclaw 2000, a UW-dominated local coalition party, sat down at the negotiating table last week with AWS to form a coalition and sort out policy issues. The mayor was heading those negotiations indicating continuity in present policy, but the outcome of an agreement was unclear at press time.
"We won't know until after the coalition is formed whether it will be good for business or not," said a local business leader who requested anonymity. "Only then will we as the business community be able to say whether we are happy or not."
Although local politicians are attempting to follow the AWS/UW national party line in several leading cities, in lodz, SLD was looking to cross that line and form a coalition with UW, said Krzysztof Makowski, a member of SLD newly elected to the city council.
The hookup is motivated by regional politics, Makowski said. SLD doesn't need to form a coalition in lodz having won a clear majority in the race for city council seats. However, it's a gesture to form a stronger political base in the neighboring powiats, he said. On the voivod level, however, the SLD is planning to cross back over party lines and form a coalition with the farmers' coalition headed by the Peasants Party (PSL).
Amid the political bed hopping and infighting, is there a sane path for business to follow?
Yes, start networking, said Darek Drapala, senior real-estate negotiator for regional projects at Jones Lang Wootton.
"Whatever the coalition, you should meet with the people and tell them what you can add to the local situation," he said. Even if the political makeup doesn't change, the people likely will, he added.
As of Jan. 1, 1999, Poland's administrative map will be three tiered with the gmina as the smallest local district, followed by the powiat (essentially city level for large cities) and the voivod council. In addition, there is a voivod governor. Although the governor will be appointed by the prime minister, the other three government bodies are comprised of councils elected by local residents.
Besides the shift in the electoral base, the local councils will have expanded competencies in taxation, investment and property development. Cities, for example, will inherit properties from the State Treasury, formerly under voivod control. Voivod councils, essentially powerless until now, will be responsible for shaping regional development including infrastructure projects and will have the ability to sign international agreements.
Although most details have been worked out on paper, much remains to be defined in the reform law approved in late August, less than two months before the elections, said Andrew Young, country director for the National Democratic Institute, a U.S.-backed, non-profit political advisory group in Warsaw.
For example, funding sources remain unclear and the state will likely hand over property on a case-by-case basis, Young said.
So, although the long-term shift of control to the local level is laudable, business development will likely suffer in the short term during the paper shuffle and power plays, pundits and business leaders said.
"The first year will be difficult," said Andrzej Rybarczyk, president of general contractor POZ-Building Holding in Poznan. "There will have to be an evolutionary process to enter into this new situation … We will have to learn a lot."
Rybarczyk will take a seat in Poznan's city council for the first time in January. His party, Freedom Union (UW), however, will likely play a lesser role there than it has in the past.
That's a similar scenario in several major cities, where Solidarity Election Action (AWS) has consolidated its political base mirroring results in parliamentary elections two years ago. In those national elections, AWS united various Solidarity factions to emerge victorious and form a coalition government with UW.
Although in terms of overall results at the local level this year AWS came second behind the opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), AWS was playing significant roles last week in talks to form governments in major cities such as Poznan, Krakow, Katowice, Wroclaw, Gdansk and Gdynia.
In the Baltic cities of Gdynia and Gdansk, AWS scored strong victories, taking the majority of city council seats. But that does not necessarily mean a smooth road to transition and development of cohesive policies.
In Gdansk, for example, where AWS holds more than 50% of the new council seats, the coalition's conservative wing is a major player. The conservatives were part of the present government and headed city development and foreign investment programs and could provide continuity. But an unknown quantity is the coalition's other major player, the Solidarity trade union, which traditionally has taken a stand against large capital, foreign investment. Moreover, they have yet to have input on the city's zoning plan.
Although the plan is scheduled for city approval by year's end, Solidarity will probably want to review those blueprints resulting in delays of up to six months, said a local official, who requested anonymity.
Similar delays could play out as AWS seeks coalitions with UW in cities such as Katowice and Krakow, where there's a history of bad blood.
Last spring in Krakow, for example, Solidarity city council members teamed up with the SLD to oust the Krakow mayor, a member of UW. That move could haunt AWS if it wants to form a strong government in Krakow.
The Solidarity coalition, a strong leader in the recent elections, is forming a coalition with a small nationalist party, to gain a clear 51% majority. But with AWS itself a coalition of several factions, a stable government with clear policy direction may need UW as a partner.
The best solution is for AWS and UW to work together, said Kazimierz Karasinski, managing director for Sunley Polska.
Perhaps Wroclaw has the cleanest political scorecard. There, leaders of Wroclaw 2000, a UW-dominated local coalition party, sat down at the negotiating table last week with AWS to form a coalition and sort out policy issues. The mayor was heading those negotiations indicating continuity in present policy, but the outcome of an agreement was unclear at press time.
"We won't know until after the coalition is formed whether it will be good for business or not," said a local business leader who requested anonymity. "Only then will we as the business community be able to say whether we are happy or not."
Although local politicians are attempting to follow the AWS/UW national party line in several leading cities, in lodz, SLD was looking to cross that line and form a coalition with UW, said Krzysztof Makowski, a member of SLD newly elected to the city council.
The hookup is motivated by regional politics, Makowski said. SLD doesn't need to form a coalition in lodz having won a clear majority in the race for city council seats. However, it's a gesture to form a stronger political base in the neighboring powiats, he said. On the voivod level, however, the SLD is planning to cross back over party lines and form a coalition with the farmers' coalition headed by the Peasants Party (PSL).
Amid the political bed hopping and infighting, is there a sane path for business to follow?
Yes, start networking, said Darek Drapala, senior real-estate negotiator for regional projects at Jones Lang Wootton.
"Whatever the coalition, you should meet with the people and tell them what you can add to the local situation," he said. Even if the political makeup doesn't change, the people likely will, he added.
