Making a party
The center ground of Polish politics is in a sorry state. The Freedom Union (UW) was thrown out of Parliament along with the moderate elements of Solidarity Election Action (AWS) at the last election. The Civic Platform (PO), the political force that created high expectations because of candidate Andrzej Olechowski's strong showing in presidential elections, is losing ground at a time when it should be gaining disaffected Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) voters.
There are three major reasons for the center's failures: " Their distinguishing feature on the political scene, a commitment to liberal economics, wins few votes outside of the intelligentsia and the professions.
" They did themselves few favors by adopting very naive electoral strategies. UW positioned itself as the party of the well-meaning intelligentsia and made much of its opposition to populism. PO positioned itself as the party of the well-to-do, enterprising and the educated young. Trying to make a virtue of being rich and clever in a society in which pensioners are struggling to make ends meet and millions live below the poverty line is recipe for electoral failure.
" They lack convincing leadership. UW was damaged by five years of Leszek Balcerowicz leadership, an austere economist without charisma. Jerzy Buzek, the AWS prime minister though undoubtedly a moderate and civilized man, became deeply unpopular because of his inability to lead the government in any direction. Olechowski created the PO but then shied away from leading it.
Yet the center does have a very influential champion. He is none other than President Aleksander Kwaśniewski, the most successful and popular politician in Poland. Kwaśniewski was originally elected on an SLD ticket but his political instincts and views are firmly embedded in the political center. His commitment to economic liberalism, the creation of an open civic society, good church-state relations and a sound track record working for NATO and European Union enlargement make him a natural ally of the center. Of late, Kwaśniewski has certainly been keen to accentuate his differences with Prime Minister Leszek Miller and the SLD. First he made it clear that he was against limiting the powers of the National Bank of Poland and the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). Second, he expressed his opposition to the SLD's policy of abolishing the existence of the second chamber, the Senate. Now he has spoken out in very forthright terms against the government's electronic media legislation and taken the side of the commercial broadcasters and Adam Michnik's Gazeta Wyborcza, controlled by Agora. This does not look like a man thinking of political retirement.
In three years' time Kwaśniewski will have to leave the presidency. He is too young to retire into an existence of star turns on the international speakers circuit. He would dearly love an international role but it does not seem as if either the EU nor the International Olympic Committee would be able to make him the kind of offer that would satisfy his stature and ambition. But he could try and regain the SLD leadership as Miller falters. However, Miller has made SLD very much his party. Its rank and file no longer loves the president. This is why Kwaśniewski may think about building a political movement of his own. The EU accession referendum will be the moment in which the center and left will come together to fight on the same side. However, the moment that fight is won they will retreat to their respective bunkers. Kwaśniewski will then be able to express his disappointment at the fact that good people cannot get together. And, since the existing political forces do not have the will to offer the people a single moderate choice, he must create one. There can be no doubt that should Kwaśniewski make his move many would heed his call - both the UW and the PO would be eliminated from contention virtually overnight.
Will he go it alone? I doubt if he himself knows the answer to that question. It will be a very tough call to make. After all, it was Kwaśniewski who built the SLD and turned it into the winning force it is today. He knows only too well that to base the new movement on the popularity of just one man may be skating on thin ice. However, if he sees enough public demand he may follow the example of inter-war leader Józef Piłsudski and ditch the left in favor of building the center.
Chris Mularczyk is a Warsaw-based consultant. He can be e-mailed at cmularczyk@wbj.pl.
