Media firms puzzled by TV viewership research
By : Anna Kocinska
TV broadcasters, advertisers and ad agencies are finding it tough to agree on audience standards as inconsistencies among market research firms intensify.
"The differences between the results reported by Osrodek Badania Opinii Publicznej (OBOP) (http://www.obop.pl) and AGB Polska (http://www.agb.com.pl) became visible in 1998," said Jaroslaw Pawlowski, OBOP's vice president. Pawlowski said that when the firms' research began showing variations of as much as 30 minutes for the average weekly viewing time (ATV), analysts started to worry.
Dorota Klamka, head of strategic planning at TVN's ad office, said OBOP recently reported the ATV to be 40 minutes less than AGB's. "It's a difference of 20%," she said. "You can't blame statistical error for that difference."
Analysts said that such inconsistencies could impact the gross rating-point (GRP) figure, or "currency" that TV stations and advertisers use for assigning a value to viewing levels. The larger the audience is, the more GRPs TV stations can sell to advertisers.
The problem is that if AGB's research indicates that total audience figures are bigger than OBOP's, then the TV station is able to guarantee a more successful ad campaign for the advertiser and in turn reap higher ad revenue for itself. Under this scenario, advertisers relying on OBOP's results may lose out.
"That's why advertisers should also be interested (in establishing one measurement standard), because when paying for 10,000 GRPs they really may get only 8,000 if AGB isn't right," Klamka said.
Share the percentage of total viewing time in Poland, going to a particular station is also significantly different in the two institutes. According to OBOP's weekly share estimate for May 14-20, TVN had 18.8% of the viewing audience while Polsat had 20.8%. AGB, meanwhile, recorded 22.8% for Polsat and 16.9% for TVN.
"This may have a negative impact on advertisers' decisions if they base their plans only on the share factor," said Adam Rybarczyk, an analyst with AGB.
Because of these discrepancies, a TV station may appear to be a smaller player on a bigger market according to one firm's estimates, but a larger station on a smaller market according to the other. No wonder then, that broadcasters and advertisers are confused.
"Since we take money from our clients, we would like them to have a clear picture of the market," said Tomasz Englert, managing director of MediaCom Warszawa media house. "We would like the data we provide to support our recommendations for buying a station's ad time to be credible."
But market insiders are having a difficult time explaining the widening gap between OBOP's and AGB's results, especially since the number of respondents are about the same. "The difference is only about 100-150 households," AGB's Rybarczyk said.
OBOP's Pawlowski was also unable to explain the reason for the variation. "I don't know why AGB's ATV is growing when there is no reason for viewership to grow," Pawlowski said. "I can't see any place in the world where TV viewership could go up as much as it's measured by AGB in Poland."
Media insiders, though, accuse the two institutes of having close ties with leading TV stations. Rybarczyk said OBOP, established in 1958, receives "millions of dollars," from public Telewizja Polska (TVP). AGB was set up in Poland in 1996, landing Polsat as its first client.
To try to quell the confusion, TV broadcasters, advertisers and ad agencies in April agreed to carry out an audit of OBOP and AGB to try to pinpoint the reason for the differences. But companies are now arguing over who will pay for the audit. Mediacom's Englert said it may cost $50,000-$100,000. "TVN is ready to share the expense," Klamka said. Polsat hasn't been quite so forthcoming.
"I don't think it makes sense to support an audit that won't change anything," said Andrzej Muszynski, head of PAI Media, Polsat's ad office. "There will still be two companies and two sources of data. We would eagerly support the kind of research that would decide who is going to stay on the market."
According to Muszynski, a previous audit of the two companies changed nothing. "The last audit was a misunderstanding and this time we don't need it to decide on who will stay, OBOP or AGB, but to find out the reasons for the discrepancies between them," Mediacom's Englert said. "All the rest will be decided by the market."
And the market is deciding. While OBOP's Pawlowski said his company would succeed in finding new clients, TVP remains OBOP's only important customer among TV stations that depend on ad revenue. AGB is used by Polsat and TVN, among others, in addition to many large media houses. "And that's why we have problems allocating the costs for the audit," Englert said. "Most market players buy AGB's services anyway."
According to TVN's Klamka, it's unrealistic for broadcasters to act in unison to change the present situation. "We have an open war on the TV market, a war of discounts and of (programming) formats," she said. "Cooperation? First you would have to get rid of all those emotions."
