Miller: The man with a plan

By appointing Grzegorz Kołodko as finance minister, Prime Minister Leszek Miller has shown his hand. He is staking everything on getting economic growth back on course and limiting his interest in other areas. The change at the Culture Ministry demonstrates that Miller wants to reduce his number of enemies. Ousted minister Andrzej Celinski's tactics of not only telling the art community that he has no money, but also showing it that he thought they were a bunch of prima donnas, was giving Miller's government a bad reputation. This is why Miller has brought in Waldemar Dąbrowski, former director of the National Theater, to help calm troubled waters. There will still be no money, but the ministry will make encouraging noises. Tea and sympathy is better than a slug in the mouth. The change at the helm of the Justice Ministry was a long time in coming. Barbara Piwnik was reputed to be a tough judge, but her lack of political experience was painfully exposed, especially in her contacts with the media. Cynics argue that she became expendable now that the trial of the public officials responsible for managing Poland's communist-era international debt repayments is dead in the water (Piwnik, before she became a minister, was the judge handling the case and her elevation to office meant that the trial had to start anew). What is certain is that Miller decided that he wanted a justice minister with the political craft to talk about "no tolerance of criminals" and "stiff sentences" rather than breaking into legal jargon as Piwnik did. The sadness at the departure of former Finance Minister Marek Belka, a safe pair of hands, is being richly compensated in entertainment value by the arrival of the flamboyant Grzegorz Kołodko. His previous spell at the ministry (1994-1997) featured a degree of arrogance that no other finance minister has been able to emulate. But his record on economic growth looks promising. He was, of course, lucky to reap the harvest of the reforms of the early 1990s. It's just a shame he did not use the time to do anything meaningful about restructuring public finances.

Kołodko's appointment shows that Miller has a plan. He wants to devalue the złoty and then to have it pegged to the euro, relax the budget deficit and risk a little more inflation to get growth. He needs to get it fast because he wants to have the first signs of a significant upturn by next year's referendum on Poland's accession to the European Union. If that referendum is won, he can rush to an early general election to cash in his chips and get another four years. When safely back in power he will hope that money coming from the EU can ease his budgetary problems. The plan might work at the political level. The opposition is weak enough. The threat of Andrzej Lepper's Self-Defense could, in the long term, help Miller's Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) to hold an election on an "us or chaos" platform. Any sign of economic growth, however temporary, would be genuinely welcomed by ailing businesses. If Poland did have a credible and coherent parliamentary opposition, the alternative strategy of cutting the tax burden, radically liberalizing the labor market and getting public finances into order might get public support. But that show isn't playing. The Miller plan is a huge economic gamble. If the awaited upturn does not come, the effects could be that inflation climbs and interest rates start going up to cope with the currency sinking and the budget deficit going through the roof. I doubt President Aleksander Kwaśniewski likes Miller's plan. Its success would mean no role for him in Polish politics after 2005. But do not expect any nervous reaction. Kwaśniewski is far too skilled a politician to be seen getting in Miller's way. But expect him to make moves behind the scenes and win little victories, like the one he looks to have secured over watering down provisions for limiting concentration of capital in the electronic media bill. (See story on page 3.) Kwaśniewski will also steadfastly defend the autonomy of the National Bank of Poland. Miller won't mind that. The prime minister's tirades against the central bank are for public consumption only. Any first-year law student will tell you that any move to limit the independence of the central bank will be vetoed by the Constitutional Tribunal. Whatever our likes, dislikes and fears, there is no doubt about one thing: Miller is a professional politician in control of his government and party. He is an old bruiser who won't give up without a real fight. The pilot is at the controls, even if he is flying us into territories we might not enjoy.

Chris Mularczyk is a Warsaw-based consultant. He can be e-mailed at cmularczyk@wbj.pl.