Moody’s projects energy wholesale prices at PLN 180-230/MWh

Moody’s expects wholesale power prices to vary within a range of PLN 180 to PLN 230 (€42-54)/per megawatt hour (MWh) in the five years to 2022, Moody’s stated in a report. This compares with a current one-year forward price of above PLN 200/MWh and is higher than the range of PLN 160 to 180/MWh previously forecasted by Moody’s. The increase reflects the rally in coal and carbon prices and also takes into account Moody’s view that the country’s coal-dominated fuel mix will not change significantly, with output from new thermal capacity likely to outpace renewables’ expansion in the near term. Electricity demand in Poland in the last 15 years has grown at a much slower pace than gross domestic product (GDP), reflecting a shift towards a less energy-intensive economy. According to the ratings agency, Poland will likely achieve its 2020 greenhouse gas emissions and energy efficiency targets, but may fall short of its target of supplying at least 15% of its final energy consumption from renewable sources.