National Bank report sees problems ahead for future growth

On Friday, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) published a report on growth during the third quarter. The Bank stated that over this period GDP grew by 1.9%, which is attributed to a combination of both an increase in domestic demand and exports. The state of industry and the construction sector also appears to have improved. "The question arises, however, what is going to happen next. The public are using their savings to finance current consumption. How long can such trends maintain economic growth," asked Marcin Mroz, an economist with Societe Generale. "Until the worldwide economic situation improves, we cannot expect any permanent changes for the better in Poland," he said. Nonetheless, NBP's analysts are optimistic about the global outlook for 2003, as GDP growth in the euro-zone is expected to be between 1.4% - 2.2%, and 2.1% - 3% in the USA. The NBP believes inflation for 2002 will not exceed 2%, the most optimistic figure predicted by economists. (Rzeczpospolita, Dec. 7-8, p. B5) K.Z.