New German study points to massive labor migration from eastern Europe

The German government published a study on Friday supporting its argument for a delay in opening European Union labor markets after EU hopefuls from eastern Europe enter the 15-nation bloc sometime this decade. The study, commissioned by the government from two of Germany's leading think-tanks, the Labor Ministry's Max Planck Institute for international social law and the Ifo economic institute, stated that if the EU made its labor markets immediately accessible to candidate countries, up to four million migrants could be expected within 15 years, due primarily to the sizeable differences in wages and poor job prospects in eastern Europe. Wages eight to 10 times higher in Germany could attract as many as 250,000 east Europeans yearly. A separate forecast published earlier by the German Institute for Economic Research had put yearly migration numbers at 220,000 for western Europe as a whole. According to the new study, other factors leading to higher migration include high youth unemployment, layoffs in heavy industry not compensated for by a growing services sector and a lack of labor mobility within the candidate countries because of poor housing. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has asked for a seven-year moratorium on free movement of labor from new EU member states. On Thursday the Bundesrat, Germany's upper house of parliament, expressed enthusiastic support for Schroeder's proposal. (Reuters)