No plan if EU enlargement flounders

Poland's optimistic European Union negotiators lack a concise plan of action should the country fail to become a member of the bloc by the expected 2004 deadline, Jan Truszczyński, the chief EU membership negotiator for Poland, told the WBJ last week. Most signs point to Poland, along with nine other countries, entering the EU on Jan. 1, 2004. But even as Poland has moved relatively smoothly in its negotiations in Brussels, a litany of impending and potentially threatening variables remain, such as Ireland's vote on the Nice Treaty and Poland's own referendum to join the EU. Irish voters will hold a referendum later this year on whether to adopt the Nice Treaty, an agreement aimed at overhauling the EU's institutions so that the bloc can absorb new members. Irish voters rejected the Nice Treaty in a referendum last year, and support to ratify the treaty is waning. Poles, in turn, will hold their own referendum on EU membership, although support for the initiative is on the decrease. The date for Poland's referendum has yet to be determined. Given these factors, Poland has not decided what it would do, with respect to its confrontations with Brussels enlargement politicos, should membership be postponed months or years. "I am not minimizing the possibility of a delay," Truszczyński said, "but my point is not to speculate too much on that. It makes no sense."

Poland and the European Commission, the EU's executive branch, still must agree on four key enlargement chapters: competition policy, agriculture, regional policy and structural instruments, and financial budgetary provision. Economists expect these chapters to be closed, though not without much political wrangling, by December when the EU holds its enlargement summit in Copenhagen. But Truszczyński emphasized that Poland would have little control over the decisions that the EU and its member states make on upcoming negotiations. And Poland could not yet put into play a contingency plan, he said, should the member states disagree on the financial approach to the remaining chapters. "We will do whatever is necessary to make the member states move, but, ultimately, it's up to them to make this move," he said. Despite Poland's lack of any detailed plan, Truszczyński is optimistic that the remaining chapters will be closed in December and that the EU will open its doors to Poland in 2004. "We have a clear idea of what needs to be resolved between now and December of this year, (and) we have been preparing ourselves for many months for the final stage of the negotiations," he said. "There is no reason to fear a much more pessimistic scenario." What's more, Truszczyński said that it was likely that the Irish would ratify the Nice Treaty this time. Irish voters rejected the treaty last year largely on the basis that enlarging the union by 10 countries would put further strain on its important agricultural industry.