One wheel off the wagon

If anyone was preparing for a calm, lazy summer full of holiday spirit, he can forget it. The resignation of Finance Minister Marek Belka has made it a very uncomfortable start for the vacation period. The press conference announcing his departure was hilarious. It was all staged to make it seem that the departure of a key member of the cabinet is just run of the mill stuff. Belka himself offered the lamest of excuses, saying he was worn out. I suppose when Prime Minister Leszek Miller departs we will be told that he wants to spend more time with his granddaughter. It is all reminiscent of a resignation by a member of a government in England that was explained in terms of the minister wanting to spend more time with his family. When the minister in question returned to office a few years later, we all assumed that his family had got utterly fed up with having him around. Actually, the press conference in question was yet another example of the government treating people like fools. The people who brought us the story that a guy who had eaten a hearty breakfast committed suicide in a prison cell half an hour later (the case of a hired gun who was to be tried for the murder of the former Sports Minister Jacek Dźbski and who had links with a major mafia leader who contracted that assassination) now expected us to believe that Belka resigned because he was feeling a little tired. The contempt for the electorate's intelligence is really quite breathtaking. It is reminiscent of the communist past when oblique government communiques shed little light on what was going on. This led some to say that watching the government is like watching a set of puppies fighting under a blanket. You knew that a fight was underway, but had no idea of who was winning and why. Naught out of 10 for the presentation of the resignation then. It does not get much better for Miller and his government when we go on to consider the political implications of Belka's move. On the face of it, Belka's departure changes little. He had few friends among the leaders of the ruling Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) or its coalition partner, the Peasants Party (PSL). The SLD was disappointed in him for having been honest enough to admit public expenditure would have to be reduced in the week before the parliamentary elections last year. Privately SLD leaders believe his remarks cost the party an overall majority in the Sejm.

Miller certainly was no fan of Belka. He particularly resented Belka's lack of support for the campaign to reign in the central bank and the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). He was also irritated by Belka's resistance to increases in public spending in areas such as health care. Belka's liberalism was seen as a political handicap, although it was acknowledged to be a plus with investors and financial markets. Belka did, however, enjoy the trust and support of President Aleksander KwaÊniewski. His liberal instincts on reforming public finances were a reflection of the president's own stance on these matters. He favored a long-term strategy of reducing public spending, cutting taxes and liberalizing labor markets. In the cabinet, he was a minority of one. Belka's departure can only be interpreted as a sign of the president's men beginning to distance themselves from Miller's politics and policies. KwaÊniewski is becoming increasingly skeptical of the course this government is taking. He distrusts its anti-market rhetoric and centralist instincts. He dislikes its confrontational style toward the independent media and the parliamentary opposition. It is increasingly looking as if the president does not really think that Miller is up to the job of being prime minister. Losing the support of the president is not something this government can treat lightly. The president may be in a minority within the SLD. Constitutionally, he can do little to remove this government. However, you only need to glance at the popularity ratings of the government and its prime minister, and compare them to those of the president to understand that politically this is extremely bad news for the administration. There will, of course, be no immediate crisis. A replacement for Belka will be found even before the ink is dry on this piece. The government will produce a budget that will be carried in the Sejm. But the image of a united, purposeful administration righting Poland's economic woes has been tarnished. Whatever the full set of reasons behind this resignation, it sends out only negative messages to all the players in the political process. The media and opposition sharks can now smell blood in the water. One important wheel has come off the Miller government's wagon. The question now is, how long will it keep rolling along? Expect the local government elections to provide the answer to that one.

Chris Mularczyk is a Warsaw-based consultant. He can be e-mailed at cmularczyk@wbj.pl.