Pilot fatigue
As the prime minister soared into the skies in an F-16 two weeks ago, on the ground preparations to drop the pilot gathered momentum. The president and his men are gunning to blast the PM out of the political skies because they see him as the biggest liability ahead of the referendum and a blockage on the way to the realignment of the centre-left.
The Sejm, panicked by its low popularity ratings (only 17% public approval), voted in unison for the Investigative Commission for the Rywin affair. It also decided to stop all evictions from rented property. As its ratings fall still further, expect more curious legislative moves of this kind. Since there are no genuine right-wing parties in this Sejm, it will not be opposed. Frankly, no business or property is safe while this Sejm is in session.
The appointment of the Investigative Commission controlled by the SLD will not necessarily help Leszek Miller. His crass error of not reporting the tripartite meeting with Lew Rywin and Adam Michnik to the public prosecutor will undermine him (86% of the electorate think it was a mistake). It could be the error of judgement which seals his fate.
The more the SLD yes-men try to extricate the prime minister from the whole affair, the more he becomes part of it. The ruling SLD is now in a state of turmoil approaching civil war proportions. Józef Oleksy pours scorn on the Sejm's Investigative Commission even before it is appointed and distances himself from the sacking of Wiesław Kaczmarek. Kaczmarek himself attacks the prime minister by saying that he does not believe that Rywin was acting alone. Jerzy Jaskiernia hints darkly at intrigue coming from the president's office. It's not quite AWS-type chaos but we're getting there.
The whole affair may end like the Oleksy saga. No one ever proved Oleksy spied for the Russians, but Oleksy had to go because he lost the confidence of the president. There can certainly be little doubt that Miller does not enjoy the confidence of the president. Aleksander Kwaniewski believes Miller must go because:
" His unpopularity threatens to lose the Yes camp on the EU referendum. He is also in conflict with the president over the pace and scale of reforms needed in the early years of membership.
" Miller has proved himself to be a very poor manager of human resources. (Health Minister Mariusz Łapiński, with his foot lodged permanently in his mouth, is perhaps the most obvious example.)
" Miller's war on the private media is being waged against Kwaniewski allies. (No surprise that the president openly criticised Aleksandra Jakubowska remaining in charge of the passage of the Electronic Media Bill.)
" Miller is an old-timer who instinctively opposes the SLD becoming a centre party. He is prepared to adopt centrist rhetoric, but actions are unlikely to follow words.
" Miller stands in the way of the SLD fielding a centrist candidate in the presidential elections due in 2005.
Before Kwaniewski moves on to become secretary general of NATO (the subject of some discrete lobbying during his call on the White House), he is determined to put in place a government that will be centre-right on the economy and centre-left on social issues. General acceptance of the likes of Jolanta Kwaniewska as his successor at the Namiestnikowski Palace may also be an objective.
Do not expect the Rywin affair to do much about corruption around here. The incredibly incestuous relationship which exists between politicians, business and the media creates a climate in which corruption spreads like brushfire. A situation in which Poland's top businessmen are so often dependent on the decision-making process and at once a part of it (some have been reported to be government advisers) will not be easy to untangle.
The media is also too close to the whole process. The coverage of the Copenhagen Summit was an exercise in pro-establishment message management, which could only take place in western societies in war or 9/11-type situations. No codes of ethics or regulations on lobbying can overcome overnight the oligarchic culture which has developed.
The public does not expect the scandal to be explained (66% according to the polls). It expects nothing better from politicians. In daily life, petty corruption is rife and is only questioned when the price is too high or when one neighbour is getting more out of it than the other.
It cannot be surprising that a nation which cannot deal with its recent communist past (no one has been found guilty of anything) finds it so difficult to deal with far more complex ethical issues, such as anti-Semitism or the cancer of corruption. The culture of deception and evasion is simply too strong.
This is why we have every right to expect that, like Rywin, Miller may be sacrificed. When there is no bread, the people must at least get circuses. However, the real evils, such as corruption and the total lack of ethics in the conduct of public life, will remain.
The Sejm, panicked by its low popularity ratings (only 17% public approval), voted in unison for the Investigative Commission for the Rywin affair. It also decided to stop all evictions from rented property. As its ratings fall still further, expect more curious legislative moves of this kind. Since there are no genuine right-wing parties in this Sejm, it will not be opposed. Frankly, no business or property is safe while this Sejm is in session.
The appointment of the Investigative Commission controlled by the SLD will not necessarily help Leszek Miller. His crass error of not reporting the tripartite meeting with Lew Rywin and Adam Michnik to the public prosecutor will undermine him (86% of the electorate think it was a mistake). It could be the error of judgement which seals his fate.
The more the SLD yes-men try to extricate the prime minister from the whole affair, the more he becomes part of it. The ruling SLD is now in a state of turmoil approaching civil war proportions. Józef Oleksy pours scorn on the Sejm's Investigative Commission even before it is appointed and distances himself from the sacking of Wiesław Kaczmarek. Kaczmarek himself attacks the prime minister by saying that he does not believe that Rywin was acting alone. Jerzy Jaskiernia hints darkly at intrigue coming from the president's office. It's not quite AWS-type chaos but we're getting there.
The whole affair may end like the Oleksy saga. No one ever proved Oleksy spied for the Russians, but Oleksy had to go because he lost the confidence of the president. There can certainly be little doubt that Miller does not enjoy the confidence of the president. Aleksander Kwaniewski believes Miller must go because:
" His unpopularity threatens to lose the Yes camp on the EU referendum. He is also in conflict with the president over the pace and scale of reforms needed in the early years of membership.
" Miller has proved himself to be a very poor manager of human resources. (Health Minister Mariusz Łapiński, with his foot lodged permanently in his mouth, is perhaps the most obvious example.)
" Miller's war on the private media is being waged against Kwaniewski allies. (No surprise that the president openly criticised Aleksandra Jakubowska remaining in charge of the passage of the Electronic Media Bill.)
" Miller is an old-timer who instinctively opposes the SLD becoming a centre party. He is prepared to adopt centrist rhetoric, but actions are unlikely to follow words.
" Miller stands in the way of the SLD fielding a centrist candidate in the presidential elections due in 2005.
Before Kwaniewski moves on to become secretary general of NATO (the subject of some discrete lobbying during his call on the White House), he is determined to put in place a government that will be centre-right on the economy and centre-left on social issues. General acceptance of the likes of Jolanta Kwaniewska as his successor at the Namiestnikowski Palace may also be an objective.
Do not expect the Rywin affair to do much about corruption around here. The incredibly incestuous relationship which exists between politicians, business and the media creates a climate in which corruption spreads like brushfire. A situation in which Poland's top businessmen are so often dependent on the decision-making process and at once a part of it (some have been reported to be government advisers) will not be easy to untangle.
The media is also too close to the whole process. The coverage of the Copenhagen Summit was an exercise in pro-establishment message management, which could only take place in western societies in war or 9/11-type situations. No codes of ethics or regulations on lobbying can overcome overnight the oligarchic culture which has developed.
The public does not expect the scandal to be explained (66% according to the polls). It expects nothing better from politicians. In daily life, petty corruption is rife and is only questioned when the price is too high or when one neighbour is getting more out of it than the other.
It cannot be surprising that a nation which cannot deal with its recent communist past (no one has been found guilty of anything) finds it so difficult to deal with far more complex ethical issues, such as anti-Semitism or the cancer of corruption. The culture of deception and evasion is simply too strong.
This is why we have every right to expect that, like Rywin, Miller may be sacrificed. When there is no bread, the people must at least get circuses. However, the real evils, such as corruption and the total lack of ethics in the conduct of public life, will remain.
