Poland’s decarbonization to cost additional €380bn by 2050

The most cost-effective path of Poland’s emission neutrality by 2050 requires an additional €380 billion, estimates McKinsey, an American global management consulting firm. In a report devoted to Poland, it indicates that decarbonization translates into measurable economic benefits.

According to McKinsey, even without investments related to decarbonization, Poland’s expenses for the necessary infrastructure replacement and construction of new elements in the five areas analyzed – energy, buildings, transport, industry and agriculture – will amount to €1.2 trillion to €1.3 trillion. In 2020-2050, additional investment outlays leading to decarbonization would total €380 billion, or €13 billion on average per year.

At the same time, operating costs can be expected to decrease by €75 billion. Decarbonization should improve the country’s trade balance. This would mainly result from a drop in imports of fossil fuels by around €15 billion per year, indicates the report.

McKinsey’s analysis shows that significant economic benefits could be brought to Poland by the development of low-carbon industries, e.g. production of electric vehicle components, offshore wind energy in the Baltic Sea, production of heat pumps or electric agricultural machinery, as well as R&D. These areas have the potential to increase economic growth by 1-2 percent and contribute to the creation of 250,000-300,000 new jobs, highlights the report.

In the most cost-effective scenario adopted by McKinsey, by 2050, Poland is able to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions relative to 2017 by 91 percent and increase its carbon uptake just enough to compensate for the remaining 9 percent of emissions that are particularly difficult to reduce. Thus, the country could achieve emission neutrality by 2050.

(PAP)