RCSS and CASE give conflicting predictions for September's inflation rate

The latest Central Statistical Office (GUS) survey shows food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 0.4 % in the first half of July in comparison with the second half of June, and were 0.5% higher than a month ago. The Government's Center for Strategic Studies (RCSS) says it is the first time in two years that there will be monthly inflation (estimated at between 0.2% and 0.3%) instead of deflation. As a result annualized CPI will rise to between 10.3% and 10.4%. However, August should see retail prices falling to 10% and in September inflation should be in single figures. Other analysts are less upbeat. The Center for Socio-Economic Analysis (CASE) believes year-on-year inflation in July will most likely exceed 11%. This belief is seconded by ING Baring' chief economist Krzysztof Rybinski who says that if the prices continue to increase into the second half of the month, then inflation will be in double figures. Among the foodstuffs which went up the most were sugar, chocolate and honey (up by 3.8 %), and bread and grain products (up by 3%). (Prawo i Gospodarka, page 2) P.S.