RCSS: GDP growth up; Unemployment up; Inflation down; C/A gap stable

Jerzy Kropiwnicki, head of the Government Center for Strategic Studies (RCSS), told journalists that the think-tank's macro-economic forecast does not deviate substantially from that of the Finance Ministry. According to Kropiwnicki, GDP growth will settle at 5.1% next year against a 4.5%-5% this year. Despite such impressive economic growth, the rate of unemployment could rise to 14.6%-15% or 2.7 million people next year, against the current 2.5 million. Kropiwnicki added that economic growth has continued robust this year in spite of lean performance in the building and agricultural sectors, an indication that they have lost their role as the primary engine for economic growth. The RCSS also detected a reduced appetite for borrowing, a phenomenon attributed to the high cost of loans coupled with high inflation. The current account deficit could decline to 7% of GDP at the end of this year and could dwindle further to 6.7% next year. Inflation is also forecast to decrease to 6.6%-7% in 2001 against 6%-8% projected by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). (Gazeta Wyborcza, p.25)