Research institute predicts further drop in food exports

The Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics (IERGiŻ), a state research institution that deals with Polish food production, has published a forecast saying that food exports will drop by two percent y/y in 2014, with a trade surplus of €6 billion. Furthermore, the forecast claims that food exports will drop by six percent in H1 2015. Both the exports (forecast to be at €19.9 billion) and imports (€13.9 billion) will decline by the aforementioned amount. The export forecast for H1 2015 is €9.6 billion, a figure that's six percent lower than the y/y comparison. Import will also decline to €6.7 billion - seven percent less than in H1 2014. According to the Institute, the main external factors influencing the trends in food trade include the economic situation of the main Polish trade partners (EU, CIS), the exchange rate of the złoty against the US dollar or euro as well as the relatively low price fetched by agricultural produce. The existing restrictions will continue to hamper trade with eastern partners, especially when it comes to meat, fruit and dairy products. Export to Russia used to make up a considerable amount of trade in these products.