Significant discrepancies between GUS and NBP first quarter export statistics

According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS) exports in the first quarter of this year grew by 9.2% in dollar terms in comparison with the same period last year. The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) added that if expressed in euros the growth rate would be 23.6%, growing at a faster rate than GDP. GUS also reports exports to the European Union (EU), Poland's biggest trading partner, grew by 7.7% in the first quarter. However, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reports a substantial decrease in exports of 8.4% in April in comparison with the same period last year. According to the RPP, the discrepancies between the reports is because of different methodologies: GUS bases its research on custom declaration (SAD), whereas NBP gathers data on money circulating in the banking systems. Professor Stanislaw Gomulka of the London School of Economics feels exports should not be assessed on the basis of the NBP report and appealed to economists to speak up about it in public. (Gazeta Wyborcza, page 24) P.S.