SLD offers a taste of things to come
Despite the deep animosity and political competition between President Aleksander Kwasniewski and the ruling coalition, over the last couple of years there has been a workable consensus in a crucial area of state policy: foreign affairs. After the 1997 parliamentary elections, which led to the establishment of cohabitation-style politics between the right-wing government and a president closely linked with the opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), both sides pulled together in the final run-up to Poland's NATO entry last year. They have since been working hard to push forward Poland's chances of EU accession. So it came as a surprise last week to see this last platform of cooperation coming unglued, in the shape of an unprecedented attack by President Kwasniewski on the government's policy towards Russia.
Speaking at an Amcham breakfast, Kwasniewski complained that Poland's relations with Russia were at low ebb, and this is the government's fault. The president's Head of Chancellery, Ryszard Kalisz, then went on radio to complain about the government's handling of relations. These attacks came against a background of coolness between the two countries, first made clear a few weeks ago with Poland's decision to expel Russian diplomats caught spying red-handed. Russia retaliated with tit-for-tat expulsions, and then, two weeks ago a demonstration outside the Russian consulate in Poznan turned sour when Polish demonstrators, protesting Russian policy in Chechnya, destroyed a Russian flag and invaded the consulate's grounds. In retaliation, "National Bolshevik Party" members turned up outside the Polish embassy in Moscow, waving flags and demanding that Poland be partitioned along the lines of the 1939 Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. Add to that the fact there are no high-level visits planned between Russia and Warsaw in the next few months, and indeed, relations can be said to be "cool."
But what was surprising in the president's statements was that he laid the blame squarely in the lap of Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek, increasingly the elder statesman of Polish politics, thereby showing that whatever the state of Polish-Russian relations, those between the government and president are also at a two-year nadir. Why the sudden change?
There are three broad factors at play. Firstly, as in defense affairs, Kwasniewski is seeking to use the current downturn in Polish-Russian relations as an excuse to test the limits of his constitutional prerogatives. The fact of the matter is that the Polish Constitution drafted under the supervision of Kwasniewski himself, when he was Chairman of the Constitutional Committee in the last parliament makes clear that it is the government which makes foreign policy, and that the president can act or speak on foreign matters only in coordination with the foreign minister. Kwasniewski is seeking to establish a precedent that he is an equal partner in determining foreign policy, and that governments who step out of line can expect a public ticking-off.
The second factor is the upcoming presidential election campaign, in which Kwasniewski is sure to stand. Part of his strategy will be to portray himself as a man of responsibility and reason, in contrast to a right-wing political opponent that he will surely label as irresponsible and hot-headed. So it makes sense to portray himself now as stepping forward to calm international tensions "caused" by the current government.
The third factor bodes ill for the Freedom Union (UW), of which Professor Geremek is a leading member. In attacking the foreign minister, Kwasniewski broke one of the key taboos in his delicate relations with the UW, which he has courted as a potential future SLD coalition partner. Kwasniewski was instrumental in ensuring that Geremek was made head of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee in the last parliament, despite the fact that the SLD were in government, and many Warsaw insiders saw Geremek as a potential Prime Minister. The public divorce with Geremek which privately enraged the foreign minister comes on the heels of last year's rupture with UW leader Leszek Balcerowicz, when Kwasniewski went back on promises and vetoed his radical tax reform plans.
It is indeed true that when it lacked certainty that it could govern alone, and was still fearful of its international reputation, Poland's post-communist SLD leaders were prepared to use the UW as a fig-leaf partner to gain power and preserve international legitimacy. Now that opinion polls show the SLD has a real prospect of gaining an overall majority, and with SLD politicians feted at congresses of the Socialist International whose leaders rule Western Europe, the Freedom Union has suddenly lost its usefulness. At the same time, from the point of view many Western politicians, maintaining good relations with Russia despite continuing genocide in Chechnya, is a political totem. So President Kwasniewski may well be calculating that his latest intervention will score him even greater points among those who Lenin once rightly dubbed "useful idiots." Perhaps earlier than expected, President Kwasniewski and the SLD are giving the UW and the West a taste of things to come.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
