Stand down battle stations

Against a background of internal party pressures, and a mood of resentment at what many UW deputies felt were moves designed to completely sideline the UW in policy making, last week had seen the UW announce a series of demands that were its conditions for the survival of the coalition.
These demands included sacking those responsible for the current confusion in the health service reforms, a stop to the AWS-sponsored property "enfranchisement" bill in Parliament, and punishment for those AWS ministers who had voted against the government's position on the proposed State Procuracy, which in an AWS-sponsored amendment had gained powers to veto privatizations OK'd by the Treasury Ministry. For a couple of days last week, television and radio were filled with senior UW figures threatening to pull out of the coalition unless these demands were met.
In truth, the UW pulling out of the coalition would not have actually brought down the government: rather, a minority government of Buzek would have taken over. Despite this, it looks as though AWS blinked first. Buzek dismissed Jerzy Wutzow, deputy minister of health, seen as responsible for the anesthesiologists' strike through having fanned their appetites last year. Then AWS leader Marian Krzaklewski signaled that he had dropped support for the radical "enfranchisement" bill of AWS, and would support a government-sponsored bill instead, likely to be more conservative. And Buzek slapped the wrists of ministers who voted against the government while promising a review of all ministers in the coming months pending a government reshuffle in April.
Most observers would have been surprised if indeed the government had fallen apart. After all, although a few AWS radicals still dream of an AWS coalition in Parliament with the Peasants Party (PSL), and more radical right-fringe parliamentary groupings, such a government would have been essentially paralyzed in Parliament, totally at the whim of the UW in terms of passing any legislation that it would put forward.
The choice between impotency, and playing stooge to the UW, would have been equally catastrophic for AWS's popularity in the country. This realization that AWS needs the UW, at least for now, is still shared - but only just - within the UW. Although there is now a public faction of UW parliamentarians and activists calling for a withdrawal from government, smarter UW politicians realize that the long-term consequences could be disastrous: UW would inevitably be pushed into the arms of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) in Parliament, and squeezed massively at any subsequent elections as voters move to perceive politics as a bipolar battle between AWS and SLD. Only by being a "critical partner" can UW preserve its current electorate.
Time will tell over the next few weeks whether the modus vivendi hammered out between Buzek, Krzaklewski and UW boss Leszek Balcerowicz will hold, or whether this is a last-gasp deal that will finally collapse come the next crisis.
Some observers are drawing comfort from the fact that Buzek has emerged as key arbitrator of the crisis, and that a greater determination to defend his own position will also dampen centrifugal forces in the coalition. Secondly, an important development may be the result of the founding congress last weekend of the main political force within the AWS alliance, the AWS Social Movement (RS AWS).
This party is in fact now the key power force inside the broader AWS, closely linked to the Solidarity trade union, staffed by senior ministers and parliamentarians, as well as having a membership, often of local officials and personalities linked to the government. After much jockeying for positions, it was finally Buzek himself who emerged as party leader, with other key positions going to Interior Minister and Deputy PM Janusz Tomaszewski, and parliamentary AWS player Jacek Rybicki. Krzaklewski himself remains honorary chairman of the RS AWS.
Although Buzek will have little time to actually run the party, the fact Poland now has a prime minister who is leader of one of the largest parties in Parliament means there may be a slow but welcome shift of power from AWS backrooms into the PM's office itself.
Failure to make clear who is boss has always been one of the problems of AWS, and is the source of the fractious activities that so annoy UW politicians. Now observers will be watching Buzek to see whether he begins to wield real leadership in AWS as a whole and strengthen his position as the man who keeps the coalition together.