Start rocking the boat

By : Marek Matraszek

   So Poland has a new government. Led by the head of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) Leszek Miller, and in coalition with the Polish Peasants Party (PSL) it looks set to govern Poland for the next three and half years at least (Miller has announced that elections will be shifted to the spring of 2005). Although many aspects of the new government’s policies, especially in the economy, remain unclear, many remain confident of the future because of what they perceive as the new government’s coherence, in contrast to the chaos of the previous Jerzy Buzek administration. Yet one of the more interesting features of Polish politics in the weeks and months to come will be to observe tensions and divisions in the government, which even now are becoming visible.

   The conventional view would be point to the fact that Miller has almost a governing majority in Parliament, and that although he is forming a government in coalition with the PSL, the PSL has received only a small part of the governmental posts to be shared. Moreover, it is argued, the political attitude of Miller to governing is the direct opposite of Buzek’s. While Buzek saw the road to political survival through compromise and placation of opponents, Miller views politics as the survival of the fittest, and the ability to ruthlessly impose one’s political will on both allies and enemies. So, are we in for more stable and determined government than under the Buzek period?

   Perhaps not. The truth is that the government at the outset is a coalition of four parties, not just the SLD and PSL. Recall that the SLD ran for the elections in a coalition with the Labor Union (UP), a small but vocal left-wing party that prides itself in its socialist principles. Its leader, Marek Pol, is deputy prime minister as well as infrastructure minister. Although the UP was loyal during the campaign, it has already decided to set up a separate parliamentary club and spoken out against some of the proposals made by new Finance Minister Marek Belka. It remains to be seen, moreover, how the UP MPs will behave in crucial parliamentary committees, such as those of finance and privatization, over legislation that affects their core welfarist constituency.

   The PSL, for its part, has shown no signs whatsoever of stepping back from its pre-election rhetoric of opposition to the “Balcerowicz-Bauc” school of economics. Its leader, Jarosław Kalinowski, shocked foreign investors last year at the annual Economist Governmental Round Table in Warsaw by launching into a diatribe against foreign investors and privatization. Kalinowski is now agriculture minister and also deputy prime minister, at a time when Poland is entering delicate negotiations with the European Union (EU) on the accession timetable. Again, depending on the course of policies that will be drawn up by Bauc, Kalinowski may prove to be a troublesome thorn in the side of both Miller and Bauc. Under the Constitution, of course, Miller could ease the PSL out of government with no threat to his government, even though it would then be a minority cabinet. Yet that option would make legislative work hugely difficult for Miller and it seems unlikely.

   Although Miller might consider the PSL expendable, and even – at a push – the UP, there is a third coalition partner of the SLD that he cannot afford to lose: President Aleksander Kwaœniewski. The truth is that Kwaœniewski can be regarded as representing a de facto fourth governing partner, above all defined by the appointment of Marek Belka as finance minister and as deputy prime minister. It is no secret that Miller has no love for Belka – indeed his private economic views are far removed from the reforming pragmatism of Belka – yet he was prepared to tolerate Belka in his government as the price of obtaining Kwaœniewski’s support for his role as PM. During the next few months, the extent to which Miller seeks to either marginalize or support Belka will be the true reflection of Miller’s political credibility and reform credentials.

   There has been much written in the past about the divergence of views and even political rivalry between Kwaœniewski and Miller, the latter disapproving of perceived meddling in the affairs of government emanating from the presidential palace. Already, even before taking office, the split between the two men was shown by the public doubt expressed by Kwaœniewski as to whether Miller’s proposed abolition and subsequent reconstruction of the Polish intelligence services was the right thing to be doing at a time of international tension and conflict. That immediately drew an angry response from Miller, who argued that the reform will move ahead despite warnings from NATO and the United States. Other areas where the two have clashed was over the appointment of the controversial Wiesław Kaczmarek as treasury minister. Although Kaczmarek was supported by Miller, Kwaœniewski spent some time seeking to install a different candidate.

   Faced with effectively three alliance partners (as many as there are deputy prime ministers), hemming him in from both left (UP, PSL) and right (Belka), Miller’s room for maneuver will be less than many observers expect. There are of course further constraints, such as the prospect of increasing divisions within the SLD itself. But as Miller surveys his government team of Tuesday morning around the Cabinet table, he will once again rue the day that the elusive overall majority eluded him.

   Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl.