Steady as she drifts
In one of the most volatile weeks in recent Polish politics, Solidarity Election Action (AWS) came within a hair's breadth of total implosion that would have eliminated the ruling party as a serious contender in this year's elections, and from Polish politics. Although the crisis was just about resolved, it remains to be seen whether the party, which three years ago seemed set to dominate Polish politics for years to come, will survive the year ahead. The crisis involved one of the main constituent parties of AWS, the Conservative People's Party (SKL), voting on whether to remain in the movement or throw in its lot with the nascent but ascendant Civic Platform (PO), the new political movement currently taking Polish politics by storm. Many SKL leaders have already mentally decided to work closely with PO, seeing it as an opportunity to finally create in Poland a popular reform party without having to cut unwelcome deals with Solidarity trade union activists or other political operatives. Opposing this vision, and still trying to make AWS work, were other senior SKL leaders, including its chairman, the charismatic Jan Maria Rokita. He and his allies believe the PO to be a flash in the pan, and that the historical goals of the Polish right can best be achieved inside AWS through a process of slow evolution.
Had SKL indeed voted to leave AWS, many observers believe that move would have given an added boost to the credibility of PO, but more importantly sounded the death knell for AWS as a broad-based political movement, forcing it into an increasingly radical nationalist-unionist corner. Just days before the vote, however, Donald Tusk one of PO's three leaders gave an interview that made it clear that PO had no interest in an alliance with SKL as a whole, but only in accepting individual SKL members into PO. Faced with the prospect of SKL's departure from AWS being synonymous with the party's liquidation, enough members of its political council swung 'round to vote for the party to remain inside AWS.
On the surface, that means that the substance if not the details of the Christmas agreement reached between the faction leaders inside AWS still holds, and that AWS is on track to becoming a proper federation (with statutory authorities) before the spring, and to compete in the parliamentary elections as a more-or-less coherent force. Yet the truth is that AWS remains a political force in crisis, with the jury still out on whether it will retain its position as the main anti-communist force in Polish politics.
Firstly, SKL itself remains deeply divided, and those politicians determined to drive it out from AWS and into the hands of the PO leadership have not given up their efforts. Their next move will be to try and engineer a party congress to mandate the departure. Secondly, SKL has requested the renegotiation of the Christmas federation agreement, thus leaving AWS with the prospect of further weeks of internal wrangling and navel gazing at a time when AWS ought to be organizing for the forthcoming elections. Indeed, it is truly astonishing to see the degree that AWS seems to have completely given up the ghost in recent weeks since Christmas no coherent party statement or decision has been made. With the leadership in seemingly total paralysis, newspapers and television have been full of news about PO and the internal machinations within the Freedom Union (UW). Not surprisingly, the current opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) have had little to do other than sit back and gloat, and watch their approval ratings move up still further.
Behind the scenes, the battle for the heart and soul of AWS has already commenced. In a little-noticed move last week, the Solidarity trade union and the AWS Social Movement (RS AWS) component of the federation came to an agreement about the method for selecting parliamentary candidates for the September elections. The prospect is now of this group gaining the initiative inside AWS as a whole, with the aim being to dominate the electoral lists and the future parliamentary club after September. Fair enough, but it was precisely the overbearing dominance of the Solidarity trade union and its RS AWS allies that was the source of tension inside AWS in the first place. What seems to be in store after this current crisis has passed is a new round of infighting and maneuvering over internal influence that will hold zero interest for the voting public. If that is the case, look for the poll numbers of AWS to fall still further, toward the doom zone of 10% and below.
There have been innumerable false dawns in the history of AWS, once trumpeted as the final incarnation of the Polish right. Many times its leaders have overcome one crisis, only to plunge themselves into a new round of bickering. Despite hopes to the contrary, the prospect is of this continuing into 2001 as well. If at the same time, PO manages to maintain its momentum, it may not have to wait until the elections in September to lay claim to the title of the main anti-SLD opposition force in Polish politics.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.plBR>
