Testing times for AWS
In the month or so that has passed since the withdrawal of the Freedom Union (UW) from the governing coalition, observers have been watching carefully to see what has been the effect on the quality of governance by the Solidarity Election Action (AWS) party. There had been fears that without the UW, and particularly former Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz, AWS would quickly face difficulties over policy and party discipline in Parliament. Yet although there have been some problems, the general consensus is that AWS will emerge from being a minority government strengthened.
Last week's vote over the introduction of 3% VAT in agriculture was a case in point. Originally, AWS had bent to the demands of the farmer lobby and voted to maintain 0% VAT on agricultural products. The Senate amended the legislation, and Parliament's opposition had been relishing the opportunity to defeat this amendment with the help of undisciplined AWS MPs. Yet only five AWS MPs joined the opposition to resist the imposition of the VAT, and faced the threat of expulsion from AWS as a result. The vote means more money for next year's budget, despite the unpopularity it will cause for AWS in the countryside.
AWS' rapid reaction to punish those MPs who broke party instructions will also probably be the reason why Treasury Minister Emil Wasacz has improved his chances of retaining his post despite yet another attempt to unseat him by the vote of no-confidence in Parliament due this week. Wasacz has twice faced such votes, emerging unscathed from the last one by only two votes, and is seen as the minister most potentially at risk from his political enemies. Wasacz is especially vulnerable in this regard, not only from the official parliamentary opposition, but also from many AWS MPs whom he has managed to alienate over the last three years. That has been an inevitable consequence of his job: in every privatization decision he made, there have inevitably been losers, and their political backers inside AWS have no reason to do him any favors. Yet Wasacz will be drawing comfort from the VAT vote: with the opposition fully mobilized, the anti-AWS faction could only muster 209 votes, whereas 231 votes are required to remove him through a no-confidence motion.
The attitude of most AWS MPs is that the time has come to draw together in the face of upcoming elections, and not give the opposition or the UW any opportunity for dividing the alliance from within. An illustration of that came last week over the parliamentary vote on the controversial "enfranchisement" bill, which would give away free shares in state property to Poles, and also some communal housing and flats, as compensation for years under communist rule. This proposal has been criticized as unworkable not only by Balcerowicz and the UW, but also by many AWS MPs who are in conflict with the bill's author. Yet even skeptical AWS MPs voted for the bill.
Crucial in pushing through the bill was the support of the Polish Peasants Party (PSL), normally in opposition. Indeed, AWS has been increasingly flexible as a minority government in choosing its allies on specific votes. In a recent vote to nominate the head of the National Remembrance Institute, it struck a deal with the UW. The UW also voted for the agriculture VAT, but against the enfranchisement law where AWS was supported by minor rightist parties. The prime minister's ability to play on various factions and parties on legislative matters has allowed AWS to maintain a semblance of parliamentary efficiency despite being 60 seats short of an overall majority.
The main challenge over the next few months will be trying to construct a budget that is able to gain majority support in Parliament, and thereby avoid Parliament's early dissolution by President Aleksander Kwasniewski. Here the chances are much bleaker. Already the UW has made it clear that it will not support the budget, and many UW politicians are laying the ground for this through a campaign in the Polish media especially the influential Gazeta Wyborcza newspaper to discredit the draft budget law being constructed by Finance Minister Jaroslaw Bauc on the grounds that it is not restrictive enough. Conversely, the right-wing opposition has been campaigning against the budget on the grounds that it is "too liberal." To compound these woes, it is becoming clear that the very construction of the budget will cause the government unprecedented headaches: that is certainly the implication of the education minister's resignation after it had emerged that there was a shortfall of cash for teachers' salaries. On top of other obligations such as debt repayment, the prospects of constructing a budget for an election year are remote.
Most AWS MPs are breathing a sigh of relief at the prospect of the upcoming summer recess. But although a couple of months ago many were predicting a complete political meltdown of AWS, the last week has given some hope that the hemorrhaging of its political credibility has been stemmed. It may be too little, too late, but for AWS even that is better than nothing at all.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
