The Demographic Situation A Challenge, Not a Disaster

 There is a full-blown alarm in the Polish media about the impending so-called "demographic disaster" which is, we are told, set to hit the coutnry in the coming years, due to a combination of the outflow of population through emigration to other EU countries, longer life expectancy and fewer children being born in Poland. But are all these concerns entirely justified. By Brendan Melck Over the past 25 years, a combination of factors has led to a marked increase in the aging of Poland’s population. According to a study published by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) in November 2014, the percentage of the Polish population aged 17 years or below was 29.8 percent in 1989; by 2013, this had fallen to 18.2 percent. At the same time, the percentage of the population in the so-called “post-productive” age group (60 for women and 65 for men) increased from 12.6 percent in 1989 to 18.4 percent in 2013. It’s not as if Poland alone were facing the problem of an aging population – many developed economies are in the same situation. It is the combination of this, plus large-scale emigration – particularly of young people – and a population growth rate slightly below zero which causes concern. In a way, Poland is a victim of its own success: it has a healthier population, in general, than at the time immediately following the transformation from the communist system, with a significantly longer life expectancy, and its people are free to move around between the countries of the most important free trade area on the planet, of which it is a member. So many improvements! But these changes have their implications and consequences for Poland’s economy and society, too. The challenge of migration Increasingly frequently, commentators in Poland and internationally are speaking of the demographic challenges Poland faces, and migration is usually at the top of this list of factors. The number of Poles migrating has been increasing in the past couple of years, with 2.2 million spending over three months outside the country in 2013 according to GUS, compared with 2.13 million the previous year, and close to the record pre-crisis level in 2007 (2.27 million). A recent Reuters article spoke of Poland’s “creaking” social security system, with young Polish migrant families more likely to have children outside of the country, thereby increasing the challenge of paying for the growing pension requirements of the aging population. It also highlighted the problem of a shortage of labor in Poland, raising the question of the need for a new influx of immigrant workers into Poland. Nuanced thinking needed Izabela Grabowska, professor at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities (SWPS) and senior fellow at the Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw, challenges the perceived ideas about migration. “We need to change the discourse on migration, because essentially, when all the political campaigns start before an election, migration is used more or less as a political football,” she said. “It’s easy to use as a kind of eyecatcher for the electorate in Poland and abroad; politicians say ‘I want to bring back young, well-educated people to Poland.’ But we need to look at the pros and cons of migration. Migrants are usually coming back to the places where they started from, meaning they are coming back to the local communities. The question is: do they integrate back to their local labor markets?” Grabowska argues for a more nuanced approach to the question of migration, far removed from the political slanging matches over who is responsible. “What do migrants bring back? They bring back money – of course economic remittances are very important, especially for the eastern part of Poland – but it is not only that, it’s also about social remittances, the changing mentality, helping local communities open up to the world. People are coming into contact with new behaviors and practices because of migrants coming back. This may make a difference in local communities. However, this is not that visible, and not that obvious.” Many Poles who emigrate do return, and Grabowska believes that they can have a role in changing the shape of the labor market in Poland and instill positive aspects of their work experiences abroad. Thus migration, which is being painted in such negative terms by many, could ultimately still prove to be an essential aspect of Poland’s continued development, at a time when, as she emphasized, a good proportion of employers are still educated according to the communist tradition. Shortage of labor – solutions closer to home Grabowska doesn’t accept that migration is the main cause of the problem of shortages in Poland’s labor market. Reported shortages of construction workers and salespeople, among others, have prompted debate on the need for increasing migration into Poland, particularly from neighboring countries to the east, such as Ukraine and Belarus. In the past year, legislation on the registration of immigrants has been changed to make the process easier. “It’s very easy to say that all the problems in the labor market – shortages, lack of qualified labor force – are caused by migration, but it’s not true,” she countered. “Migration is only one factor in a whole catalog of factors. Why are we talking about migrants? Let’s talk about women in the labor market. We have one of the lowest participation rates of women in the workforce in the European Union. We still have problems with keeping women in the labor market, and bringing them back to the labor market. But it’s a combination of factors. Emigration is not the only reason why we’re experiencing these problems.” According to OECD figures, 59 percent of Polish women of eligible age participate in the workforce – just 1 percentage point below the OECD average. However, the proportion is significantly higher in Germany, the Netherlands and Scandinavia in particular. Is Poland ready for an immigrant influx? As to whether Polish society is ready for an influx of new immigrants, a recent survey carried out by Poland’s Public Opinion Research Centre within the auspices of a project carried out by the International Organisation for Migration, the University of Warsaw and the Ministry of the Interior, almost half of respondents (48.9 percent) said that they would be happy to have foreign neighbors from different cultures and traditions living permanently and legally in Poland, while 27.8 percent disagreed with this proposition. Grabowska favors a mixed solution in this case, again emphasizing a nuanced approach to these delicate questions. “The question is to what extent Polish society is ready for it. There could be challenges in some local communities with structural problems and unemployment, but overall, the Polish economy needs immigrants. There are segments of the labor market – especially in developed countries – where natives do not want to take certain jobs. The best scenario would be for a gradual inflow of immigrants, mixed with returning Polish migrants. In general terms, it’s hard to say how much of a problem an influx of migrants to Poland would cause – it needs to be connected with changes in Polish society brought on by returning migrants, people who have lived in diverse societies, and for whom this is nothing unusual.” It could be worse The danger of there simply not being enough people in Poland to pay taxes and pay into the social security system in the coming years, for all the reasons noted above, is also getting considerable attention. GUS stated in a report last year that in the foreseeable future, no significant changes could be expected that would ensure an improvement in the country’s demographic situation, pointing to the low levels of marriage and changes in birth trends which will have a negative impact on fertility levels, particularly in view of the sustained high levels of emigration. However, it is not as bad as in the Baltic states, according to Grabowska. “Thankfully, we are not in the situation of the Baltic States – they have a real reason to panic there. The outflow from migration compared with the size of the population in Lithuania is one of the highest. They have real reasons to worry about the social security system and taxes. I don’t think there is a case for panic in Poland at the moment. Migration levels are stable.” A more nuanced and less alarmist perspective on the demographic debate is important when it is being used cheaply to score political points. However, the fact remains that there is a challenge ahead – and a significant one.