The feel-good factor

   Something strange took hold of the nation last week as Siberian winds blew ice and snow in from the East. A wave of optimism appeared to grip the country.

   I refer, of course, to a poll on consumer confidence that seemed to defy the usual doom-laden forecasts, and indicated Poles are far happier than previously imagined.

   The poll found that people are optimistic about economic growth in Poland this year. They also admitted that financially they aren't too badly off either. More surprising still is that this poll on consumer confidence flies in the face of one conducted last year, which was the worst on record.

   What's interesting here is state employees seem far happier than staff working for private firms. Times may be tough for state employees, but many obviously think they're easier than during much of the past decade.

   But those particularly at risk to bouts of depression and angst seem to be the entrepreneurs and university graduates, who fail to see even a pinhead of light at the end of the economic tunnel. These days starting up your own factory seems to be far more difficult than working for one owned by the government. And these people have good reason to be concerned.

   It's no secret that small and medium-size enterprises are given little in the way of official support. Besides a few official programs or sweeteners by banks, those who start up their own companies are on their own. They sink or swim on the economic tide – and at the moment they're worried.

   So back to earth we go. Unfortunately another far less rosy picture was painted by a Gdansk-based think tank. The Institute for Market Economy Research forecasts a rise in unemployment to 16% from just 9% in the 1990s. This will inevitably put pressure on public finances and inflation. It said these jobless figures will continue because of continuing sluggish economic growth and delayed key structural reforms in state-owned heavy industry.

   Meanwhile, there's no sign yet that interest rates will drop from their lofty height of 19-23%.

   This is no doubt the reason why many Poles are holding onto their earnings these days. Those people that responded to the consumer poll all said they were spending a lot less than they were a few years ago. This may be bad news for the economy, but having money in the bank or under the carpet certainly makes you feel good. Even good enough to respond positively to a pollster in the street.

   Let's hope everyone's still upbeat when the zloty's devalued.