The Final Countdown
So, what many people never believed would actually occur finally happened: a cathartic political event that marks the first real sea change in Polish politics since the parliamentary elections of 1997. The decision of the Freedom Union (UW) to leave the governing coalition came out of the blue: and it will have dramatic consequences for the future of Polish politics, both in the near and long term.
Although it is only a week since the latest crisis started, already the events that triggered it the decision by Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek to appoint a commissioner to run Warsaw Gmina Centrum has faded into the background. Almost overnight, the conflict between the Freedom Union and the majority Solidarity Election Action (AWS) party over this superficially local spat snowballed into a government-shattering event. How did it happen?
In retrospect, the Warsaw city council conflict was merely the catalyst that ignited the crisis. On the surface, Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek took a bold decision to finally end the months of wrangling in the central Warsaw gmina, which had led to a paralysis of council activities, by appointing a commissioner to run the show. In retrospect, that turned out to be have been Buzek's big mistake. In the first place, the decision may have been illegal. That will be decided in the next month by the Supreme Administrative Court, but already the weight of legal opinion is that the decision infringed several laws. Secondly, by essentially abolishing the authorities of Warsaw Gmina Centrum, Buzek's action overnight put a knife into the whole web of deals and relationships that had kept many hundreds of local officials and politicians happy for years. Especially pained was AWS's coalition partner, the UW, which have had their hands on the levers of Warsaw power one way or another for the best part of the last decade. Enough reason to upset Leszek Balcerowicz, finance minister and Freedom Union leader. But Balcerowicz was doubly upset, since just two hours before he signed the order to install the commissioner, the prime minister had assured Balcerowicz that he would not do so. That was the last straw for Balcerowicz and the Freedom Union: having totally lost confidence in the integrity of the prime minister, staying in government would have amounted to moral capitulation.
But of course, nothing in politics is as simple as that, and in fact the Freedom Union's actions are an expertly timed move, designed to secure as far as possible a starting base for the next crucial year of politics, past the presidential elections later this year and into parliamentary elections in 2001. The opinion polls have been merciless, showing AWS plummeting like a stone, and taking the Freedom Union with them. It is now clear that Poland's ruling coalition is heading for an electoral massacre a year from now, and despite protestations to the contrary, it is clear that this disaster will be of the government's own doing. For the Freedom Union, continued identification with AWS leader Marian Krzaklewski and Buzek was the political equivalent of putting a noose around their own necks.
Far better, then, to leave now than to wait for the inevitable end. As always, the Freedom Union is able to have its cake and eat it. By judicious use of its swing vote in Parliament it can support or defeat specific governmental legislation, and moreover define the time when it will best for its interests to pull the plug on the minority government altogether. That is likely to come in the spring of next year, not now. The UW needs time to shore up its electoral position, and moreover, the new electoral law without which elections cannot be held, since the current law is related to the now-abolished system of 49 voivodships remains stuck in parliamentary committee. Leszek Balcerowicz has always stated that elections in the spring are optimal from the economic cycle's point of view, since they allow a new government time to draft its own budget for the following year.
The Freedom Union, however, has held out a glimmer of hope for AWS. Namely it is prepared to enter into a new government, but on one condition: that the prime minister, policies and members are totally on the UW's terms. That means getting rid of Buzek, revoking the Warsaw city decision, launching a war on corruption, pushing through a tough budget, introducing tax cuts, and guaranteeing discipline among AWS parliamentarians. A tough enough order, yet as this article was going to press, indeed this was the subject of fevered attempts at negotiations by the AWS. Many AWS leaders, realizing that this latest move by Balcerowicz was not a bluff, were prepared to give up everything to avoid the prospect of a minority government, hostage to the Freedom Union and clinging on for dear life, condemned to watch merely as the clock ticked toward the time of its inevitable political execution.
Polish politics has a habit of springing surprises, and this is one of the biggest. It may even be that by the time you read this, events will have taken a completely different turn. Either way, we live in interesting times.
Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw Director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
