The fixed-lines are down
By : Roseanne Gerin
The use of mobile phones will overtake the demand for stationary phones during the next five years, resulting in a slowdown in Poland's fixed-line telecom sector, according to a recent report issued by Austrian investment bank CA IB.
CA IB forecasts that fixed-line penetration, or the number of stationary phones per 100 inhabitants, will grow from 28% at the end of 2000 to 36.5% in 2005, while cellular penetration will increase from 17% at the end of 2000 to 57% by 2005. As a result, CA IB downgraded its projection for revenue growth in the fixed-line phone market from a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) the year-over-year growth rate applied to an investment of 13% to 9% per annum during the next five years.
The popularity of mobile phones, increasing tariffs for fixed-line service and aggressive marketing campaigns by cellular operators offering lower prices will likely drive down the demand for fixed-line phones, according to the report, issued last month.
Based on the fast growth in cellular subscriptions, CA IB expects the number of cell phones to exceed the number of fixed lines by mid-2002. At the end of 2000 there were 6.8 million cell phone subscribers in Poland compared to almost 11 million fixed lines.
Consequently, CA IB forecasts that Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA) will see a loss of market share in its fixed-line calling service and a slowdown in revenue growth after 2003.
