The road to Europe

   During the recent European Union (EU) summit in Nice, German chancellor Gerhard Schroder argued for increased voting rights for Poland when it eventually joins the exclusive league.

   Although Warsaw can thank him for allowing Poland eventually to enjoy the same voting weight as Spain, the question of when Poland will actually become an EU member has been left open-ended. Vague comments from key officials as to Poland's chances of hitting its 2003 accession target have not clarified the matter.

   Both Schroder and Romano Prodi, president of the European Commission, have said Poland should accede to the EU with other first-wave applicants, quelling fears that the country's lack of agricultural and environmental reforms and its notorious corruption have relegated it to second-wave status.

   Optimism for early entry was nurtured when the EU released its November "Regular Report," which describes Poland as one of the most advanced of the first-wave applicants. It makes an attempt to categorize candidate countries according to their ability to withstand market forces, one of the criteria set forth for accession at the 1993 Copenhagen European Council. It mentions Poland, Hungary and Estonia as the applicants most able to sustain a freeing of their markets in the short term as long as reforms continue.

   Of other first-round applicants, Cyprus was described as already market competitive while the Czech Republic and Slovenia would be competitive in the short term after certain reforms are carried out.

   Poland has closed 13 of 29 negotiating chapters, compared to only nine this spring, according to data provided by Poland's mission to the EU in Brussels.

   While it was mentioned in Nice that the first entrants could be admitted in mid-2004, Poland is still pushing to wrap up negotiations by the end of 2001 and accede in early 2003.

   "It is a realistic strategy," said Malgorzata Altermann, spokeswoman for Poland's mission to the EU. "According to our road map, it is possible."