The sound of sharpening knives
Last week, I outlined why a major political casualty of the next few months might be current Freedom Union (UW) leader and former Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz. But Balcerowicz is not the only Polish politician whose position is being challenged. That is a threat he faces with the man who he now regards as one of his main political rivals Marian Krzaklewski, leader of the ruling Solidarity Election Action (AWS) coalition and the right's chief candidate in the forthcoming presidential elections. After three years of dominating Poland's right, many observers feel that his time, too, is up.
The main reason for Krzaklewski's increasing fragility is, of course, the progress of his presidential campaign. Poll after poll shows incumbent President Aleksander Kwasniewski with a steady vote around 65%, and Krzaklewski hardly ever registering more than 10%. That is in itself a blow to the pride of a man who has geared every political move of the past three years to winning the presidency. When the campaign began he was behind Kwasniewski, but his campaign team genuinely believed that by this stage of the race he would be gaining significantly. Instead, he seems to be slipping even further behind. What is even more demeaning for Krzaklewski is the prospect not only of losing to his arch-enemy Kwasniewski, but possibly being beaten into third place by Andrzej Olechowski, the imposing former foreign and finance minister.
The prospect that Krzaklewski will collapse in the crucial political test of a popular national vote is already opening up the floodgates of resentment that have built up around his leadership of AWS over the past three years. Many see the vote as a referendum that is as much about his record as AWS leader as about Kwasniewski's presidential achievements. This resentment is coming from three AWS constituencies. The first is that of the political parties that make up AWS alongside the Solidarity trade union. Although in themselves minuscule, the parties concerned the Conservative People's Party (SKL), Christian National Union (ZChN), and Christian Democratic Alliance (PPChD) contain the vast bulk of Poland's old guard of center-right politicians who controlled the right until Krzaklewski arrived on the scene in 1996. Then, the party leaders ceded power to Krzaklewski on the grounds that only he could unite the right and deliver an electoral victory under the AWS umbrella in 1997. Now that Krzaklewski is about to stumble, many of these leaders see it as an opportunity to reassert party control, and replace what they perceive as a cabal of unionists and political Johnny-come-latelies. For many of them, it will also be sweet revenge against a man who over the past three years has marginalized their influence and not infrequently humiliated them in public.
The second locus of resentment is located within the Prime Minister's Chancellery, and in Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek himself. For three years, Buzek allowed himself to be pushed around by Krzaklewski, who was frequently able to enforce decisions, nominations and firings within the government with the aid of a single telephone call. With the government now a minority one, and Buzek's constitutional position paradoxically strengthened, the prime minister has over the past few months actively excluded Krzaklewski from governmental decisions. Now, it seems he will not stand in the way of Krzaklewski's removal, especially since it is Buzek whose name is most frequently mentioned as the man most likely to take over as leader of the AWS coalition.
Ultimately, Krzaklewski has owed his strength to the Solidarity trade union. Now that, too, seems in danger of erosion. Evidence of this has come in his campaign, where some Solidarity union regions have refused to place their resources at his disposal. More ominously, Krzaklewski along with others recognizes that soon a powerful rival may re-emerge within the union in the shape of former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Janusz Tomaszewski. Tomaszewski was forced to resign a year ago following his indictment on charges of falsifying his vetting statement in the framework of Poland's lustration process, and was publicly hung out to dry by Krzaklewski, who saw the opportunity to undercut a rival. Now there are increasing rumors that Tomaszewski may be cleared by the Lustration Court in the coming weeks. If that verdict is handed down before Solidarity's next congress, due in December, it may mean that Krzaklewski's leadership will be challenged not only within AWS, but also within the Solidarity trade union itself.
It remains to be seen if the fate of Krzaklewski in the elections will be bad enough to effect a crystallization of all these resentments into a critical mass that will lead to his removal as AWS chairman before the end of the year. Certainly, in any normal political environment, the scale of defeat towards which he seems to be heading would warrant instant resignation. But Poland is a country where political careers are made instantly, and political downfalls can play out for months if not years. Time will tell whether Krzaklewski will keep or break this mold.
