The state we are in
Of course, it is not all gloom that we see before us. Why, has not inflation sunk below a single percentage point? December saw the glimmerings of a manufacturing revival, and there are indications of foreign middle-sized companies bundling in for new greenfield starts. Exports appear robust. The European deal is done. Sit back, then, open a bottle of something appropriate, and sip a toast to our increasing prosperity. That, regrettably, would endorse the short-termism that plagues the country and its economic prospects. The signs of something being not quite right at all are only too evident. Along ulica Jana Pawła in the capital, the street police have been descending upon swarms of mostly elderly women hawking the contents of their homes, moreover, to eager purchasers. This is a chilling reversion to the early days of the market reforms, and an uncomfortable confirmation that the poor, the majority, are indeed becoming even poorer. When the impoverished have no safety net beyond their last few possessions, it is well past time to worry.
The body politic is in a gruesome state. Distractions offered by the perpetual game of musical chairs in Leszek Miller's extraordinary fluid government are matched by the absence of coherent opposition. The Sejm is gripped by populist fever, forever making foolish laws which will be struck down by the president, the constitutional tribunal or the EU. There is not a hint of the promised public information campaign with the referendum less than 20 weeks away. Nothing is being done to prepare the public administration for the impact of accession. To give but one illustrative example, the Finns, at this stage of the game - and to serve 5.2 million people - had created a task force of 8,000 vanguard civil servants versed in the ways of Europe, not least in attracting development grants. Here, the affairs of former health minister's limousines, the astonishing crop of salacious rumours seizing the chattering classes, taken with the Gazeta-gate scandal, and even the prospect of Lech Kaczyński presiding over the bankruptcy of the national capital, divert attention from any kind of comprehensive, long-term strategic debate.
So it was that as the budget was further pledged to purchase 48 fighter jets for €4 billion and as a multimillion-euro investment by a French car firm in Silesia, a region which desperately requires new work, went down the drain - and much worse, for the second time. The plant will proceed instead to Slovakia, not exactly a country with a leading reputation for luring foreign investment. This tells us that the authorities here, nationally and at the local level, have fouled up big time. What makes this even more tragic is that one of the prime minister's now infamous five New Year promises was to do something concrete about unemployment which, in Europe, is second only to that of Germany. Pulling out the stops to capture Peugeot-Citroen would have been a fine way to butter fine words. And yet what is even more disturbing is that the government demonstrably couldn't care less.
The Japanese ambassador recently remarked in this newspaper that Poland cannot present a candle to the Czechs and Hungarians in terms of aggressively courting foreign investors. Both offer one-stop shops in major foreign locations, which are plugged straight back into an apparatus designed to make entry into the market as attractive and bother-free as possible. This is called the "precision targeting of investment." We are denied any such institutions. Investors are compelled instead to machete their way through a choking jungle of bureaucracy to get in here, and then run, still breathless, the gauntlet of sleazy favour-mongers. Small wonder that a senior diplomat representing an important power is openly declaiming the stench of corruption which lies over the land.
The mismatch between what the country has to offer, in terms of manpower, skill base, raw materials and opportunities, and the size of the market, compared to the obsession with crude politicking and the preservation of brain-dead democracy, has already lost billions. In the tragic business of Peugeot-Citroen, it appears that it was local bureaucrats who bungled the first initiative, but this time the blame lies squarely with the central administration. The French commendably returned for another go, irrespective of their bitter experience first time around. This demonstrates exactly how compelling the country and its prospects can be. A victory would also have served as a rallying call in the referendum.
A great many people who are outside the circles of the affluence which enclose privileged Warsaw and some of the major provincial cities will need a lot of convincing why they should vote Yes. This is a country where very few have travelled abroad, or read an informed newspaper on a regular basis, and they are prey to crude disinformation which may distort their judgement. Leszek Miller's task was not done, as he believes, at Copenhagen: it had only just begun. It is clear he does not vaguely understand that, and for the sake of fairness, nor do many politicians in other parties. Empty promises and postponing everything controversial or immensely overdue, such as reforming the public finances, will not win the referendum. And nor will cold-shouldering foreign investment upon which this country depends for its long-term future.
The body politic is in a gruesome state. Distractions offered by the perpetual game of musical chairs in Leszek Miller's extraordinary fluid government are matched by the absence of coherent opposition. The Sejm is gripped by populist fever, forever making foolish laws which will be struck down by the president, the constitutional tribunal or the EU. There is not a hint of the promised public information campaign with the referendum less than 20 weeks away. Nothing is being done to prepare the public administration for the impact of accession. To give but one illustrative example, the Finns, at this stage of the game - and to serve 5.2 million people - had created a task force of 8,000 vanguard civil servants versed in the ways of Europe, not least in attracting development grants. Here, the affairs of former health minister's limousines, the astonishing crop of salacious rumours seizing the chattering classes, taken with the Gazeta-gate scandal, and even the prospect of Lech Kaczyński presiding over the bankruptcy of the national capital, divert attention from any kind of comprehensive, long-term strategic debate.
So it was that as the budget was further pledged to purchase 48 fighter jets for €4 billion and as a multimillion-euro investment by a French car firm in Silesia, a region which desperately requires new work, went down the drain - and much worse, for the second time. The plant will proceed instead to Slovakia, not exactly a country with a leading reputation for luring foreign investment. This tells us that the authorities here, nationally and at the local level, have fouled up big time. What makes this even more tragic is that one of the prime minister's now infamous five New Year promises was to do something concrete about unemployment which, in Europe, is second only to that of Germany. Pulling out the stops to capture Peugeot-Citroen would have been a fine way to butter fine words. And yet what is even more disturbing is that the government demonstrably couldn't care less.
The Japanese ambassador recently remarked in this newspaper that Poland cannot present a candle to the Czechs and Hungarians in terms of aggressively courting foreign investors. Both offer one-stop shops in major foreign locations, which are plugged straight back into an apparatus designed to make entry into the market as attractive and bother-free as possible. This is called the "precision targeting of investment." We are denied any such institutions. Investors are compelled instead to machete their way through a choking jungle of bureaucracy to get in here, and then run, still breathless, the gauntlet of sleazy favour-mongers. Small wonder that a senior diplomat representing an important power is openly declaiming the stench of corruption which lies over the land.
The mismatch between what the country has to offer, in terms of manpower, skill base, raw materials and opportunities, and the size of the market, compared to the obsession with crude politicking and the preservation of brain-dead democracy, has already lost billions. In the tragic business of Peugeot-Citroen, it appears that it was local bureaucrats who bungled the first initiative, but this time the blame lies squarely with the central administration. The French commendably returned for another go, irrespective of their bitter experience first time around. This demonstrates exactly how compelling the country and its prospects can be. A victory would also have served as a rallying call in the referendum.
A great many people who are outside the circles of the affluence which enclose privileged Warsaw and some of the major provincial cities will need a lot of convincing why they should vote Yes. This is a country where very few have travelled abroad, or read an informed newspaper on a regular basis, and they are prey to crude disinformation which may distort their judgement. Leszek Miller's task was not done, as he believes, at Copenhagen: it had only just begun. It is clear he does not vaguely understand that, and for the sake of fairness, nor do many politicians in other parties. Empty promises and postponing everything controversial or immensely overdue, such as reforming the public finances, will not win the referendum. And nor will cold-shouldering foreign investment upon which this country depends for its long-term future.
