Top media figures reveal their predictions and concerns for 2002

Simon Boyd,

CEO of UPC Polska, owner of UPC Telewizja Kablowa, the No. 1 cable TV network and holder of 25% in the joint Cyfra+ and Wizja TV digital platform

"Watchers of the Polish media scene certainly look forward to the launch of the new joint Cyfra+/Wizja TV digital platform - a very important event for the market and major development in which UPC is a shareholder. In terms of the cable television industry, the increasing demands of the market will encourage operators to work together in promoting the interests of the entire industry. This year will also bring increased interest in broadband Internet access. We can expect a steady and continuous growth in this area as an increasing number of Internet users are looking for advantages that high-speed ‘always on' broadband access brings."

Michał Broniatowski, deputy president of ITI Group, a media and entertainment group,

and owner of TVN

"This year, one should be concerned about the weak economy, which may greatly impact the situation on the ad market. At the same time it's difficult to predict how the ad market will do because last year proved that any forecast is worth nothing if things like Sept. 11 happen. In any case, however, one has to assume that the economy will continue to be weak. While at ITI we'll be carefully following general economic conditions, we'll still implement our plans. We would like to introduce new thematic channels, of which the first will be an entertainment channel. We'll also launch a new channel based on RTL 7, which we took over last year. It should happen as soon as possible because we already paid for the transponder (on the satellite). The channel's name is already decided but I can't reveal it at this point. We're also waiting for the decision of the Securities and Stock Exchange Commission (KPWiG) and we'll decide to go public according to the market situation."

Wanda Rapaczynski, president of the management board of Agora, publisher of Gazeta Wyborcza

"Generally speaking, it's going to be another difficult year for the ad market. We don't expect improvement. For sure the first and second quarters will be weak and worse than last year. While some analysts expect improvement in the second half of 2002, I'm not so optimistic and my colleagues on the board agree with me. I may become an optimist if I can clearly see that consumption goes up because that would mean a stimulation of ad spending. As for Agora, we'll be focused daily on maintaining the position of our flagship product, Gazeta Wyborcza, and on our radio network (currently 19 local radio stations). We've already cut back (5% of staff last year). Now we'll have to compete for ad spending and a satisfactory market share. And there is always a question about the print run. It's all ahead of us. On the other hand, we're counting on a successful outcome to our year of hard work to develop the company."

Florian Fels, general director of Axel Springer Polska, publisher of Newsweek Polska, Profit and other titles

"Concerning the advertising market, I expect even harder competition than we have today. The concentration of media agencies and shrinking budgets of clients will lead to tougher competition, both between publishers and between print and television. Market leaders … will keep their position and have a chance to win, but for small titles and publishers it will be very tough. I expect that a couple of magazines will be closed next year and it would be not a surprise for me if we see one prominent launch this year folded (by the end of) 2002. The slowdown of the economy will also lead to smaller consumption and will affect the circulation of most of the magazines. As for Axel Springer Polska, our portfolio of strong titles in different segments enables us to look optimistically to the future. When it comes to new titles we will check all possibilities and we are ready to invest. For good concepts, there is always a market, as Profit and Newsweek proved (in 2001)."

Maciej Pawlicki, member of TV Puls's management board

"It's going to be exciting. All TV stations on the market have business dilemmas to resolve and the fragmentation of the market will continue. As for TV Puls, we're still counting on the National Television and Radio Council (KRRiTV) to grant us more terrestrial frequencies in future tenders, which would make competition among TV stations with broadcasting licenses more fair. Let me remind you that Polsat has an 84% reach, TVN - 40%, TV4 - 30% and TV Puls - 15%. In marketing terms, I think it's a good time for TV Puls. The market needs it more than ever."