Wanted: One presidential candidate
As the government and the ruling Solidarity Election Action (AWS) party continues infighting over the future of Treasury Minister Emil Wasacz, few governing politicians are finding the time to turn their attention to what ought to be by now a burning issue: Who will represent the right wing at the upcoming presidential elections, due to be held in November this year. In the opposite corner, current President Aleksander Kwasniewski has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But there is no doubt that he will be unable to resist the temptation to run for a second term, in a contest that according to opinion polls show him as the overwhelming favorite.
On the face of it the obvious candidate to run against Kwasniewski is Marian Krzaklewski, leader of Solidarity, and also head of the ruling AWS coalition. When Krzaklewski refused to become prime minister in 1997, privately he acknowledged that he wanted to keep his powder dry for a presidential contest against Kwasniewski. Although the presidency is actually quite weak constitutionally, for Krzaklewski the prestige of beating the left's standard bearer has always been a strong temptation. All the more surprising that until now Krzaklewski has not announced his candidacy. Or is it?
The most obvious reason for Krzaklewski's caution is the obvious fact that all opinion polls show him far behind Kwasniewski, with little chance of winning. In a country as electorally volatile as Poland, that means little: most observers remember similar disastrous polls for former President Lech Walesa in 1995, who on election day came within a whisker of stopping Kwasniewski, as the electorate polarized into pro- and anti-communist camps. But the trend has been disastrous for Krzaklewski, who is conscious that defeat this year would probably be the beginning of the end of his power within AWS and perhaps even within the Solidarity trade union. Krzaklewski has never truly been liked by the parties that make up AWS, and he has been accepted as leader only because of his success in leading AWS to victory in the 1997 parliamentary elections. Failure to deliver in 2000 will remove a key pillar of his power.
Krzaklewski's dilemma is unenviable, and many feel he would be delighted if an alternative candidate could be found that could be fielded although paradoxically not one that could be expected to win or even do terribly well, since that too would be a challenge to Krzaklewski, namely, the emergence of an alternative figure of authority on the right, possessed of genuine electoral legitimacy. Perhaps that is why he has been resisting the candidacy of a man who could probably do rather well were he to run, namely parliamentary Speaker Maciej Plazynski, favorite of many of the AWS party leaders hostile to Krzaklewski. Plazynski is an AWS member, but because of his parliamentary role is "above the fray" of day-to-day AWS infighting and maneuvering, and could well be perceived by many right-wing voters as a breath of fresh air on the right, and the only politician to credibly combine anti-communism and personal authority and dignity.
Although Krzaklewski and Plazynski are AWS candidates who might run, there are other right-candidates who almost definitely will: these include former Prime Minister Jan Olszewski, libertarian maverick Janusz Korwin-Mikke, and of course Walesa himself. Yet none of these will be the official AWS candidate, not even Walesa, who has long distanced himself from AWS. So the dilemma for AWS will remain: who is to be the sacrificial lamb? Step forward, Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek. Last week saw the floating of an idea in AWS to remove the increasingly criticized prime minister in exchange for running him as the presidential candidate. But that would only open up a whole new debate of similar complexity as to his replacement as PM.
As AWS ponders its position, junior coalition partner Freedom Union (UW) faces a similar problem. Few expect Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz to run, and so the search is on for a person worthy, but with no real hope of victory. Last week saw Defense Minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz propose the candidacy of failed 1990 presidential candidate Tadeusz Mazowiecki, but few regard that as a possibility. Some UW members point to current Foreign Minister Bronislaw Geremek, but a more likely choice would be former Finance Minister Andrzej Olechowski. Olechowski is not a UW member, which would be his strength: Failure would not damage the party too much, yet an upset victory would guarantee the UW a direct line into Poland's presidency.
Amid this angst, Kwasniewski is calmly and methodically preparing his campaign team and tactics. Small wonder he is wearing a smile on his face these days.
Marek Matraszek is Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed at director@cec.com.pl
