What's the frequency Leszek?

As Polish politics begins to wind down toward Christmas, Prime Minister Leszek Miller will surely be taking the opportunity to review the first few weeks of his administration, sworn in on Oct. 19. On that day, Miller had high hopes for achieving rapid political success: the ineffectiveness and incompetence of the previous government did not, after all, give him a target too high to aim for. He could also recall how most governments in Poland after elections are able to enjoy a honeymoon period during which they can set the political agenda. Miller was aware of the substantial problems that his administration would face, especially in terms of the need to introduce painful economic reform. But he could have been confident that the majority enjoyed by his coalition in Parliament would be sufficient protection against political instability.

How different political reality has turned out to be. The truth is that the first four weeks of the new government have been the most eventful of any administration a decade, and whose effect has been to divert attention from the government's main messages and themes. So, although the Finance Ministry under Deputy Prime Minister Marek Belka has produced one of the most genuinely restrictive budgets in recent years, this achievement has been overshadowed by political events. The fear must be that if matters are so uncontrolled now, what will the image of the government be in a year's time?

Paradoxically, although Miller won the election using the image of himself as determined political leader in control of his political surroundings, even the days before the election seemed to challenge these assumptions and suggested that the grasp of the leadership of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) on the finer points of political management were not all that they were cracked up to be. The infamous incident when future Finance Minister Belka was allowed to go on national television and reveal details of the government's' proposed tax increases two days before the elections may well have cost Miller an overall majority in the Parliament. The confusion continued immediately after the election with the announcement by the new education minister that the planned educational reform of the previous government was going to be cancelled. Yet a few days later, it turned out that legal advice had meant that not all aspects of the reform could be stopped, especially in terms of exam schedules, and that as a result parents could "opt in" to the reformed syllabus if they so wished.

The current row over the populist Andrzej Lepper has its sources in the statements made by the foreign minister, Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz in Brussels concerning Polish negotiation policy in relation to land sales and work rights. As a result of this, Lepper was able to launch an anti-EU tirade that spiraled into a series of political rows that cumulated in Lepper's accusations against governing politicians in Parliament last week. Again, this was a practical political mistake that could have been avoided. But the result has been to embroil the government in defending itself against charges of corruption rather than simply getting on with ruling the country.

It also seems that the government has often found itself in a position where seemingly ideological motivations have driven it to divert its political energy into sideshows. One example is the support being given to the proposed reform of the so-called vetting or Lustration Law, by which former collaborators of the communist secret services are forced to reveal their past if offered public posts. The political row that has ensued as a result of attempts to water down the law has little to do with the priorities facing the country. Then there was the row over the nomination as deputy prosecutor of a judge who was later discovered to have been a repressive prosecutor under the communist martial law period. Miller defended the prosecutor almost to the end, until the media exposed the latter as lying about his past. There was no logical reason to defend the judge, still less appoint him, since his past was known to many people who would have predicted the inevitable row.

This tendency to open up new conflicting fronts was demonstrated again last week with the attack by Miller on the independence of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), which is charged with protecting the value of the Polish currency under a constitutional article that guarantees its independence. Yet Miller went out of his way last week to argue for legislative change that would curtail its independence, were the council not to lower substantially interest rates in the coming months. The subsequent row in the press, which saw economist after economist criticizing the attempt to undermine bank independence, was surely not worth it. Once again, the reformist character of the 2002 budget was overshadowed, and the prime minister seemed to be caught seeking short-term populist support, at the expense of long-term economic stability and benefits to the economy.

The list of avoidable political mishaps could be extended. It seems that Miller's problem is not so much a lack of activity, but an increasing impression of being buffeted by political forces he seemingly cannot control, and responding rather than managing events. That is not a good start for a government that was elected by a public that identified chaos with the previous government and wanted control and predictability with the new one. Unless Miller rapidly asserts his authority and starts setting the political agenda, his popularity may come increasingly under challenge, at a time when external and internal challenges will be growing rather than diminishing.

Marek Matraszek is the Warsaw Director of CEC Government Relations. He can be e-mailed on director@cec.com.pl

Marek Matraszek