Will the real Leszek Miller please rise?

Just when we thought we knew what the prime minister generally stood for: European Union (EU) entry, low interest rates, and an independent Monetary Policy Council (RPP), Leszek Miller is once again proving that what he said a month ago has little relevance to what he purports to be a champion of today.

Only a few weeks back Miller proclaimed support for the central bank's continued independence. But that was before the RPP met in November to decide on another interest rate cut. With a 150 basis-point reduction achieved, suddenly his government is back to bullying the council to slash rates further or face having its independence removed by force (through a rewrite of the Constitution).

In some ways Miller's Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hide persona is understandable: the new government has been a shambles so far and next year's budget and economy look equally dubious. He has to do something - fast. And lowering Poland's interest rates in line with inflation - which is set to check in at a cool 3.6-3.7% in December - is a worthy goal. After all, with 2002 so dotted with question marks Poles are not spending much these days - lest they join the unemployment rolls themselves in the coming year.

But opting for the extreme measure of curbing the bank's independence, which would no doubt rattle the European Union's (EU) cage at the time when Poland needs to prove that it is committed to implementing important legal and administrative reforms, is not the answer. Particularly if one of the underlying aims of Miller's Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)-led government is to appease its upstart coalition partner, the Peasants Party (PSL), which among other things has been demanding a 5% import tax - another disturbing prospect in the eyes of the EU.

But let's say the government does manage to shake up the panel and add a few SLD doves to influence policy. What then? Will lopping another 500 basis points off rates in January guarantee Poland's return to fast growth next year? Hopefully it would, but if the answer were so simple, then surely Japan's economy, where interest rates are 0%, and the United States, which has cuts rates XX times this year, would already be reaping the rewards of well-engineered fiscal policy.

For the economy to grow, it's far more a question of consumer confidence - whether Jan Kowalski has a job and believes in Poland's future. In other words, if people are working and generally believe the government is doing an OK job, they will feel far more comfortable saying goodbye to what they earn.

But in a climate characterized by a leadership that bickers and waffles and points the finger at every turn - and which does not make job creation its top priority - people will not be in a position to spend.

In sum, for Miller's government to pull Poland out of the muck, it has to start demonstrating that it knows what it wants and is capable of more than short-term thinking - no small task given this country's political history.