WSE outmanoeuvers global slump
While world markets bowed to the vicissitudes of a volatile NASDAQ, the Warsaw Stock Exchange again found reasons to beat the global slump last week.
First, the cancelation of the universal mobile telecommunications system (UMTS) tender sent t-com-related stocks up on the realization that competition for third-generation phone services would be limited to the three companies receiving licenses: Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa (PTC), Polkomtel and PTK Centertel.
News that Leszek Balcerowicz was officially nominated to head the central bank confirmed market expectations and lent positive pressure on stocks.
"Balcerowicz is seen as the best candidate for the governor's job and is known on international markets," said Pawel Borys, an analyst with Erste Securities Polska.
The IT-heavy TechWIG was up 6.42% to 1,316.9 points while the broad-market WIG index was up 2.25% to 16,714.2 points and the large-cap WIG20 was up 3.93% to 1,690.1 points.
Telecom and energy group Elektrim, which together with France's Vivendi and Deutsche Telekom controls PTC, saw its share prices climb 12.01% to zl. 45.70 by Thursday's close.
Phone giant Telekomunikacja Polska, which owns Centertel with France Telecom, was up 3.72% to zl. 25.10.
Polish oil group Polski Koncern Naftowy (PKN) Orlen and copper miner KGHM Polska Miedz are both shareholders in Polkomtel and saw their shares up 4.46% and 0.39%, respectively, to zl. 21.10 and zl. 25.60.
Outstanding third-quarter results for PKN Orlen also boosted its share price, said Borys, who added that "trade was concentrated on the large-cap companies."
One non-telecom company, computer group Optimus, joined the gainers on the back of several weeks of losses. "That was something unexpected," Borys said. Though investors are still concerned about strategic investor ITI Holding's likely intention to expand on Optimus' successful onet.pl portal while discarding other "old economy" parts of the company, he said news that Optimus plans to enter a B2B venture with BRE Bank put a positive spin on the recent gloom. Optimus was up 9.23% to zl. 106.50.
Onet.pl accounts for an estimated 70-80% of Optimus' worth, Borys said, emphasizing that ITI's plans have not yet been set in stone. "For now, nothing is for sure (except that) Optimus will be divided," he said.
For those considering cashing in on the BRE/Optimus B2B start-up, the bank is the less risky investment of the two, Borys said. With Optimus, ITI's intentions are still too unclear. And, "Of course, the cash flow will be somewhere in the future," he said.
The unnamed venture, valued at zl. 5.1 million ($1.13 million), is 50.1% owned by Optimus and 49.9% by BRE Bank. A share capital increase is expected to zl. 10 million ($2.2 million) through the entrance of a third U.S.-based player, Borys said.
A loser on the week was the country's biggest construction firm. News that Spain's Ferrovial had upped its stake in Budimex to 49.99% of voting rights from its previous 46.4% apparently didn't impress investors. It's stock value lost 4.48% to zl. 19.20.
Rafal Jankowski, an analyst with CDM Pekao Securities, said the recent share offering should have little impact on Budimex's already dominant market share, although it will provide needed funds zl. 87 million ($19.33 million) for the rollout of development and real estate products. Roadbuilder Dromex, in which Budimex has recently increased its stake, also needs money, Jankowski said.
