Year-end forecast for Polish currency projects dollar value of zl. 4.4 -zl. 5

Most analysts are forecasting the year-end value of zl. 4.4 - zl. 5.for the dollar. Economists claim that the zloty's current weakness is due to concern about changes on the domestic political scene, indecision about next year's budget, and the outcome of the privatization of telecom operator Telekomunikacja Polska S.A. (TPSA). "We forecast that the dollar will cost zl. 4.4 by the end of the year. We base our optimism on the fact that the current account balance has improved and should drop to 7.3% of GDP by the end of the year. High interest rates will encourage foreign capital to invest in Poland. We consider the possibility a negative scenario will develop," said ING Barings analyst Maciej Reluga. "Poland is in the same basket of emerging markets as Israel and that is why investors are discouraged from investing," said ING Baring's Krzysztof Rybinski. Another factor affecting investor confidence is the report "Objectives of monetary policy for 2001" presented by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) on Tuesday. (Rzeczpospolita, p. B1)