Chinese market becoming more and more promising for Polish companies

China's economy will grow in 2021 as much as 8.1 percent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts. This is an opportunity for Polish exporters and importers. According to analysts from Ebury, China has been one of Poland's main import partners for years – it is second only to Germany. In 2020, Polish entrepreneurs imported goods from China worth PLN 145.5 billion. This means that despite the coronavirus pandemic, imports (expressed in zlotys) increased by almost 16 percent compared to 2019. Polish exporters can also boast successes. During that period, Polish companies sold goods worth PLN 13.2 billion to China. Although nominally it is not a large amount compared to imports, it is worth noting that the fight against the pandemic did not prevent the increase in the scale of exports from Poland by 15.8 percent during the year.

“The potential and absorption capacity of the Chinese market is very promising for Polish companies. This is evidenced not only by the data on the dynamic growth of GDP, but also by the growing incomes of citizens and, finally, on changing consumer habits. Over the last five years (2016-2020), exports increased by a total of 76%, ”the report reads.

Ebury analysts forecast that in the coming quarters the Polish zloty will strengthen against the yuan, and the CNY / PLN rate at the end of 2021 will reach the level of 0.55. This would be beneficial for Polish importers who settle accounts with suppliers directly in the yuan. In the forecast horizon, analysts also assume a further appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar. They expect the USD / CNY exchange rate to be at 6.00 at the end of 2022. Further appreciation of the yuan will be supported by the weakening of the dollar, political changes in the US, and positive news from the Chinese economy.

(WBJ)