European Commission assesses the Polish economy as stable
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Poland is one of the few European Union countries where there is no risk of macroeconomic imbalance. The Polish Economic Institute, a public economic think tank, analyzed the data provided by the European Commission.
The EC procedure is based on an analysis of a set of 42 macroeconomic indicators that monitor threats to the labor market, financial stability of companies, and the public sector. Indicators include, for example, employment, youth unemployment, private and public debt in relation to GDP.
Macroeconomic imbalances occur in most EU countries: Croatia, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden. The risk of a price bubble in the housing market exists in Slovakia, Denmark, and Luxembourg. The European Commission noticed the declining international competitiveness in the Czech Republic and the deteriorating state of public finances in Hungary. It also did not miss the rise in private sector indebtedness in Malta.
The European Commission signals a moderate risk of overheating in the labor and real estate markets in Poland. The real growth in house prices, excluding inflation, exceeded the prudential threshold (6 percent) by 1.1 percentage points. The deep deficit in net international investment position is also a systematic problem. Its direct consequence is, among others, rating agencies refraining from raising Poland's standings.
