Global and European GDP forecasts look stable: Euromonitor International

Euromonitor International recently released its ‘Global Economic Forecasts: Q3 2021’ report focusing on quarterly macro changes for the world’s key economies and what these changes mean to the global economy. According to Euromonitor International, the global 2021 real GDP growth baseline forecast has remained roughly unchanged over the last quarter at 5.8 percent and real GDP growth of 4.7 percent in 2022. The stable 2021 global outlook combines major upwards revision to the Eurozone, Brazil, and Mexico countered by substantial downgrades to the outlook in India and the other Asia Pacific economies. The economic recovery in the baseline forecast would still leave global real GDP more than 2 percent below the pre-pandemic forecast level in 2022.

Eurozone real GDP is expected to increase by 4.6 percent in 2021 (with a range of 4-5 percent) and by 4.3 percent in 2022 (with a range of 3.7-4.7 percent). The forecast upgrade relative to Q2 reflects better than expected progress in vaccinations and the reopening of high social contact sectors during the spring and summer, and a milder than expected economic contraction in Q1’s pandemic wave. The strong expected economic recovery of 2021-2022 is sustained by relatively fast relaxation of pandemic restrictions, a high level of household savings to spending combined with a large increase in consumer confidence, and significant fiscal stimulus from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility. Recovery and Resilience Facility funds are expected to boost EU economic output levels by 1.2 percent at the end of 2022.

(WBJ)