Goldman Sachs says Belgium will win Euro 2020
23:55
Data from international football games taking place since 1980 indicate that Belgium will win Euro 2020, according to an analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs on the basis of a statistical model.
Goldman Sachs analysts have built their model based on the number of goals scored by individual teams, based on data from international football competitions since 1980. The number of goals can be described as a component of several factors: team strength (based on Elo rating), number of goals scored by the opponent and unprotected hits to their own net, as well as the advantage of playing at home (with a weight of 0.4 points per game) and the "tournament effect", which indicates that some national teams are doing much better on tournament trips than their traditional ranking position would imply.
On the basis of this model, Goldman Sachs simulated the Euro 2020 tournament. According to analysts, Belgium will win it for the first time in history, beating the Italians by a hair on July 11. The reason for the Belgians to be on the top of the podium is because of their high Elo rank, which places them first among European teams. According to GS, the race for the cup is to be the fiercest between Belgium, Italy, Portugal, and Spain – these teams will reach the final.
The Goldman simulation, in addition to the Euro 2020 winners, also allowed analysts to make other forecasts. Germany, which will lose to England at Wembley, is to emerge from a group that is difficult for itself. According to Goldman, Germany's low position in the Elo ranking is more important than the traditional strong tournament effect of the German national team.
Denmark is going to do well in Euro 2020, which will be victorious from the group stage and fall against Portugal in the quarter-finals.
France, the current world champion, which has a high Elo rating, is in a difficult group situation according to GS, and will not benefit from playing in its territory during the upcoming tournament.
Euro 2020 will start on June 11, with a year delay due to the coronavirus pandemic.
(PAP)
