Governing Crises

WBJ: What is the essence of the present crisis in the ruling coalition?

Jacek Raciborski: Five years ago PiS achieved a victory which I describe as a Pyrrhic victory. The reason for the victory was the radical polarization of voters, who wanted to see some “change” in the country. In 2015, which was a year of presidential and parliamentary elections, support for Andrzej Duda [current president and a faithful PiS ally] was much bigger than that for Bronisław Komorowski [then president]. And among younger voters, the winner was PiS and Kukiz [on parliamentary level]. But later, there was growing discontent in society against certain ideas of PiS and its way of ruling. The electorate became further polarized. Such matters as the attitude of PiS toward abortion increased the resistance from the young and middle-aged voters. Now many Poles are protesting against PiS breaking the rule of law, controlling all public institutions, schools, universities, cultural institutions and civic freedoms. The reason why PiS is also going through an internal crisis is that the leaders of their junior coalition partners — Zbigniew Ziobro, from Solidarity Poland, and Jarosław Gowin, from Agreement Party — are against PiS strongman Jarosław Kaczyński and some of his decisions. This inner crisis may force the government to break up from within since the democratic opposition is still too weak to cause the government to collapse.

Why is the democratic opposition so weak and divided and not capable of building a common opposition block?

We have in Poland a number of democratic and opposition parties, some traditional, and some new ones, who have elected members in Sejm [lower house of the parliament] and Senat [upper house of the parliament], like the Civic Platform (PO), the Polish People’s Party (PSL), the Modern, the Left, the Greens and a new group led by Szymon Hołownia. But until now those parties have not established close cooperation. These opposition parties come from many various democratic backgrounds and the people who support them have also various views on the path to modernization, the structure of the economy, family life, education, culture and so on.

Some have very liberal views, some more conservative, while others hold leftist views. But the principle ideas are common to all of the parties: democracy, freedom, the equality of people, respect for the law, building a modern country that would be respected in the European Union and beyond.

It is both possible and necessary to build a common opposition, an anti-PiS block. And this opposition block has to establish a common strategy and a common language of communication with voters, as this is the only way to defeat PiS.

But the problem of the democratic opposition is that there is no strong leader and the opposition parties quarrel about who this leader should be?

Those quarrels are not important. It is of secondary importance whether this leader will be Budka [PO], Kosiniak-Kamysz [PSL] or Hołownia. What’s important is for the leader of the opposition block to have credibility, reliable views, personality and strength of character, the ability to maintain contact with voters, but also an understanding of how to act as a politician in certain situations.

Those Poles who are against PiS have a different attitude than PiS toward the place of Catholicism in society and a different approach to people with different sexual orientations. As a sociologist who has been analyzing society for many years, I think that the opposition party should be democratic and liberal but with a central, and not a revolutionary attitude as to the way to rule. So probably Rafał Trzaskowski would be the best opposition block leader. After all, he received nearly half the votes in the last presidential election [summer 2020]. But after winning power this coalition may become divided again.

What will life be like in Poland if PiS loses the next parliamentary election — held early or in 2023?

Poles have various views on many problems. There will be a place for Catholicism, for people of different color of skin, sexual orientation, for different views on the government. So life would be changing and organized in new ways with respect for democratic rules.

I also want to point out that even after losing the elections PiS will remain the biggest party in opposition. Its attitude to the system of law may change when in opposition, but it will still be acting as a populist, strongly conservative party, hostile in its approach to modern history, culture, education and in its attitude to the liberal western countries.

Let me make a general remark as a sociologist. In many democratic countries, the leaders of ruling parties often change, as do members of government. The pressure of society is strong and people often change their attitude toward the ruling leaders. In Poland, PiS and [its de facto leader] Kaczyński are losing voters’ support. Poland both needs to and wants to abolish the authoritarian populist PiS government led by its outdated leader.

But if the leader of the next government established by the united opposition will not have a strong personality, and if they will be unable to use language tactfully, to understand society and to present a democratic program of governance addressed to all citizens, then such a leader will be weak and will soon be changed.

So there is a long way to go toward building a new policy in Poland?

Yes, and there are also questions as to when and how Poles will respond to the current political crises.  

Professor Jacek Raciborski is a distinguished sociologist and professor at the University of Warsaw. He has authored or co-authored over a dozen books in Poland and abroad