Immense potential

The “E-mobility meter” (in Polish: Licznik Elektromobilności) operated by the Polish Alternative Fuels Association (PSPA) and the Polish Automotive Industry Association (PZPM) shows that 14,788 electric vehicles drove on Polish roads (BEV+PHEV) at the end of September 2020. 5,792 new EVs were registered during the first nine months of this year, which is a 97 percent rise compared to the same period in 2019. To put things into context, the same period showed a drop in registration for petrol and diesel powertrains by 24 percent and 23 percent respectively.

EUROPEAN LEADER

Moreover, Poland is a European leader in terms of zero-emission public transport, both in terms of production, as well as in the field of introducing these vehicles to municipal fleets by local authorities. In the period between January and September 2020, 116 e-buses rolled out on Polish streets, an increase of 197 percent against the same time last year. E-buses are produced in Poland by companies such as Solaris, Volvo and MAN.

The charging infrastructure in Poland is also seeing robust development. At the end of September, 1,282 charging stations were available nationwide. Significantly, Poland has a very high share of fast chargers (DC) when compared to other European nations, at 30 percent. There are three EVs for every publicly available charging point. Of course, this good result is also an effect of small EV car parks. 

EUROPEAN HUB

Poland is also becoming a European hub for the battery production industry, which is increasingly more important for the development of e-mobility. The LG-Chem lithium-ion cell production facility in Kobierzyce, near Wrocław in south-west Poland, is one of the largest such sites in Europe. The annual output of this production plant may reach up to 65 GWh. There are numerous investments in the battery sector being developed in Poland by other companies including Daimler, BMZ, Umicore, Johnson Matthey, SK Innovation, Capchem and Guotai-Huarong.

The crucial event in 2020 on the Polish e-mobility market was the launch of the EV acquisition support program operated by the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management (NFOŚiGW). The programs offered such as “Green Car” (in Polish: Zielony Samochód), “eVan” and “Koliber” did not achieve the desired popularity amongst potential beneficiaries. The potential buyers reserved between 0.1 percent to 12.2 percent of the allotted budget depending on the program. Despite that fact, once the programs become adapted to the market reality, e.g. raising the incentive amounts and raising the maximum price of the vehicles included in the program, they may have the potential to become a catalyst in the process of increasing EV sales in Poland.

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT

Apart from the potential financial instruments, increasing demand for EVs amongst Polish consumers also necessitates changes in the current law. PSPA initiated the “White Book on E-Mobility” project with the intention of working out very clear and precise recommendations of legal changes that would support the development of sustainable transport in Poland. The industry’s voice was heard, as the Polish government published a draft of the resolution to introduce “E-Tariff,” to reduce the fixed costs (opex) for EV charging infrastructure operators. The final implementation of these regulations will have a significant impact on the development of the EV charging network on Polish roads.

The Polish e-mobility market has immense potential. The “Polish EV Outlook 2020” report authored by PSPA predicts a realistic scenario, wherein the Polish EV car park may exceed 280,000 vehicles by 2025 if state subsidies such as incentive programs and tax reduction incentives like the reduction of 100 percent VAT from new EVs are introduced. If no such measures are brought along then the number of EVs will be twice as small. The predictions also show that given that same scenario the number of BEVs in 2030 will reach 900,000 units. Combined with hybrid plug-in vehicles – PSPA estimates nearly 160,000 such vehicles in 2025 and 570,000 by 2030 – in 2025 there may be as many as 1.5 million low- and zero-emission vehicles (BEV and PHEV) on Polish roads. The pursuit of a decarbonized economy and Polish cities without smog surely depends on the realization of such scenarios.

The Polish Alternative Fuels Association (PSPA) states that it is the largest, fully representative industry organization, which promotes zero- and low-emission technologies in transport. Aleksander Rajch is the director of external relations in PSPA.