Lukashenka maintains aggressive rhetoric towards Poland and Lithuania
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It is unlikely that it will be possible to bring about any sudden changes in Belarusian policy by means of EU sanctions in the near future. Relations with the Belarusian regime are largely a derivative of Western countries' relations with Russia and of the Kremlin's policy. Lukashenka puts the maintenance of his power in the first place and therefore uses ever stronger repressions against Belarusian society. From Moscow's point of view, this is a favorable situation - firstly, the tightening of repression weakens Lukashenka's legitimacy and position, and secondly, Belarus is in conflict with the West, which makes Minsk turn to Moscow. Moscow has long been trying to increase its control over Belarus – primarily in the military and economic dimensions. Lukashenka is likely to reach for conditional aid from Russia – not being able, for example, to obtain credit from other countries.
"Lukashenka maintains an aggressive rhetoric towards the West, especially towards Poland and Lithuania," Jan Strzelecki, an analyst at the Polish Economic Institute, noted.
"It seems that he also uses unofficial methods of operation, for example, the Belarusian services allow illegal smuggling to Lithuania. Lithuanians are detecting more and more smuggling of illegal goods and people who have crossed the border illegally. Lukashenka's methods of harming EU countries are relatively limited, however. Not all Belarusian activities are strictly political - according to the declaration of PERN, the Polish oil pipeline operator, the suspension of oil transit in the Druzhba pipeline was previously planned. In the near future, various measures aimed at economic, political, and social relations will, unfortunately, be continued by the Belarusian regime," Strzelecki said.
