POLISH-US TRADE STILL GOING STRONG

Polish-US trade in goods amounted to $19.5 billion in 2021 and was higher by a quarter than the previous year. Such a significant increase in the time of turbulence on the markets, rising transport costs, and problems with the availability of raw materials and semi-finished products seem particularly interesting since these markets are separated by over an ocean. Polish exporters, disregarding the distance and fierce competition on the US market, consistently develop their competitive advantages offering both components and consumer goods.

Since 2010 Polish exports to the US have grown by 10% annually, which is four points higher than the total Polish export growth rate in this period. In 2021, the value of Polish exports of goods to the US reached $9 billion and grew remarkably — by 24% compared to the previous year. The US is now the ninth market for Polish exports and the first non-European recipient of Polish manufactured goods. The growth rate of Polish-US trade observed for over a decade also confirms that although the current turbulence in the global economy has significantly limited bilateral trade relations worldwide, the American market represents opportunities for Polish exporters.

The latest report by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) designates the US as the most prospective market for Polish exporters. The PIE has defined this market as one that may create above-average sales opportunities for Polish goods in the next five years. Thanks to its size and high growth dynamics, the American market took the top position. The year 2022 has gotten off to an auspicious start for the US economy, with GDP rapidly recovering from the pandemic. Incomes and employment are still growing and the preliminary results show US GDP growth of 5.7% in 2021 would be the strongest in the last 37 years.

The statistics from last year are expected to be published within a few months, but we may see some interesting insights on the structure of Polish exports to the US-based on existing data. The most important export goods to America have invariably been machinery and mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers, including parts, covering over one-third of Polish exports to the American market. Export of this category has increased fivefold since 2010 due to the specialization of Polish suppliers of intermediate goods in the aviation and automotive sector. In the presented group of goods that constitute Polish export specialization to the American market, we have traditionally ranked first in parts of turbo-jet or turbo-propellers engines, whose sales value in the US amounted to $778 million in 2020. Exports in this product category have increased over the last three years by 82% and the US market takes half of the total Polish exports of these products.

The list of Polish exports draws attention to the second position of the most popular products from Poland, i.e., units of automatic data processing machines. This group may include portable computers and processors and disks for computers. Poland is currently the most prominent European supplier of these goods to the US market — in 2020, the export value of these devices amounted to nearly $600 million, which was only a fifth less than the sales of Chinese manufacturers in the United States.

Likely, the increased interest of the American consumer in Polish computers, processors, and servers can be explained by the high duties on Chinese imports to the US market. In this group of goods, the import duty from China in the US is 40%. Products in this category originating from the EU (including Poland) are not subject to tariffs in the United States. 

IMPORT

Last year, US manufacturers delivered to Poland goods worth a total of $10.5 billion. This value corresponds to 3% of the total value of Polish imports and ranks the United States in 8th place on the list of importers.

The imports from the US to Poland grew slightly slower than Polish exports to the American market during the analyzed period. The differences in export and import dynamics are also noticeable in the long-term perspective, resulting in a decreasing deficit in the Polish-US trade in goods.

The main commodity group imported to Poland from the US in 2020 is pharmaceutical products. The most important among them are immunological products, which currently hold the top position by import specialization — 9.6% of the total value of Polish imports. This value was reached due to the Covid-19 vaccines imports.

Turbo-jet engines and parts of turbo-jets and turbo-propeller engines are second and third on the list of products import specialization. These two types of goods together account for 11.5% of Polish imports from the US. It also confirms our developing specialization in the aviation sector, which needs deliveries of components.

Polish exports to the US have been affected relatively little by the recent crisis so far. However, it is highly probable that in the long run, the significant shortening of supply chains and focusing on near-distance suppliers, as well as the continuing US-China trade conflict will positively influence the development of Poland-US bilateral trade relations.