The energy crisis in Poland is highly unlikely

Although we are currently experiencing a scorching summer, it is worth analyzing the energy situation for this year's heating season. According to economists from Allianz Trade, among other factors, an energy crisis in the upcoming winter season is highly unlikely in Poland due to the decreasing dependence of Central and Eastern Europe on Russian oil and gas.

While the total import of crude oil and petroleum products in the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia) reached a record level of 86 million metric tonnes in 2022, despite rising global prices, Russia's share in this import decreased from 47 percent in 2021 to 40 percent. On average, Russia's share was 53 percent between 2017-2021. This share declined even further to 21 percent in the first quarter of 2023 following the EU embargo on the maritime import of Russian crude oil since the beginning of December 2022 and the import of Russian petroleum products since the beginning of February 2023.

The analysis by Allianz Trade indicates that some countries are better prepared to reduce their reliance on Russian oil. Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, with access to the sea (and maritime transportation), have adopted the best, mainly eliminating their dependency on Russian crude oil (which accounted for 11% or less of their consumption in the first quarter of 2023).

(WBJ)